Revisions to U.S. jobs data due Wednesday have the potential to weigh on the stock market

At 10 a.m. Eastern time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its so-called benchmark revisions on U.S. employment data from April 2023 to March 2024. Wall Street predicts a big markdown in employment gains during that span. Estimates range from a reduction of 600,000 jobs to a record 1 million.

Analysts warn that the exercise might attract outsized attention given that investors are now hyperfocused on labor-market data, as evidenced by the sharp selloff that followed the July jobs report on Aug. 2 or the bounce that followed as subsequent weekly jobless claims releases helped ease concerns about the state of the labor market.

The 12-month average for job additions over the revision period was 241,000 — a “very strong” figure that implies a solid labor market, noted Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. A downward revision of 600,000 would drop the average payrolls gain to 191,000, while a downward revision of 1 million would make what’s been strong jobs data “more middling,” he wrote.