Ukraine war latest: Vladimir Putin ‘has made decision’ on responding to Kursk invasion

Readers have been sending in their questions to our senior correspondents and military experts for their take on the changing battlefield environment.

Today, Thomas Heavner asks:

Should the fact that there has been no direct response from Putin militarily regarding the Ukraine incursion into Russia signal a larger more catastrophic response to come from Russia? Or is this just “how they’re playing it”?

Military analyst Sean Bell answers:

When Ukraine first launched its audacious incursion into Russian territory over a fortnight ago, some commentators were concerned that the attack would provoke a swift and ruthless response from Vladimir Putin.  However, over a fortnight into Ukraine’s military operation, it now appears that Russia has struggled to develop a coherent response, and Ukraine maintains the initiative.

The Ukrainian operation appears to have been well planned, and Ukraine has capitalised on its initial success by reinforcing its forces and pushing deeper into Russia.  Although Ukraine has not declared the objectives of this dynamic operation, it appears that Volodymyr Zelenskyy  was seeking to seize the initiative, bolster Ukrainian morale, and provoke a military response from Russia that would relieve pressure on an embattled Ukrainian frontline in the Donbas.   

Mr Putin was clearly frustrated at the Ukrainian incursion, but a ruthless Russian military response was only one option. Ukraine is short of military capability – soldiers and weapons – and it appears that they have deployed up to 10,000 soldiers (probably battle-hardened) into Russian territory. This “fixes” these Ukrainian forces well away from the frontline Russian action in the Donbas. 

Mr Putin knows that progress on the frontline will slow when winter arrives, so his forces have perhaps 10 to 12 weeks remaining to achieve the objectives of his so-called Special Military Operation. By focusing on Russian main effort in the Donbas, Mr Putin knows that Ukraine has diluted the forces available to resist the Russian assault towards Pokrovsk, which might enable greater progress in the limited time available.   

Once Russia’s objectives in the Donbas have been achieved, Mr Putin might consider that he can address the Kursk incursion in slower time.