‘We hardly make chips anymore’: Presidential debate touches briefly on key Oregon industry

Among the catchphrases, sweeping claims and provocative accusations at Tuesday night’s presidential debate was this line from former President Donald Trump about the state of the American semiconductor industry:

“We hardly make chips anymore.”

Trump immediately turned that generalization into an attack on recent policies of the Biden administration. Moderators with ABC News didn’t follow up, and by the time Vice President Kamala Harris spoke again, the topic had shifted.

In fact, the United States. remains one of the biggest manufacturers of semiconductors — computer chips — in the world, with roughly 10% of the world’s manufacturing capacity in 2022, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

That is a decline, but it’s part of a steady fall from the early 1990s when the U.S. controlled more than one-third of global chip-making. The industry analysis finds that China has emerged in the lead, with nearly one-quarter of global production, followed by Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, with the U.S. in fifth place.

Chip-making has outsized importance in a handful of states, including Oregon. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Oregon’s most valuable export category is computer and electronic products, like computer chips. Those exports accounted for $8.7 billion in 2023, or nearly one-third of the value of all exports from the state last year.

Global semiconductor giant Intel has a major presence in Oregon and a growing footprint in Arizona, New Mexico and Ohio. According to company fact sheets, Intel contributes $31.6 billion to the gross domestic product of those four states.

Industry analysts suggest the U.S. is poised to increase its share of semiconductor manufacturing in the years to come, thanks to national efforts like the CHIPS and Science Act, passed in 2022.

The private sector is also investing in future growth and new technologies, even as companies are forced to scale back in other areas. For instance, Intel has pledged to invest $100 billion in four states, including Oregon, though company officials also announced they’re cutting 15,000 jobs or 15% of its workforce.

The long-term result, according to a report published in May by the Semiconductor Industry Association and the Boston Consulting Group, is an anticipated 200% increase in domestic chipmaking over the next eight years.

That’s a big expansion, but because other countries are also expected to innovate and increase their efforts, that won’t put the U.S. into anything close to the dominant position it enjoyed a few decades ago.

The SIA/BCG report says American chipmaking is likely to move from roughly 10% of global production to possibly 14% by 2032.