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A bid to change the electoral math hits a roadblock: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, our team breaks down a key Nebraska state senator’s decision to stand in the way of a Trump-backed drive to change how the state allocates its electoral votes. Plus, a deep dive on the latest NBC News poll.
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Key Nebraska Republican blocks Trump-backed push to change how the state awards electoral votes
By Jonathan Allen, Bridget Bowman, Adam Edelman, Katherine Doyle, Allan Smith and Ben Kamisar
A Nebraska Republican state lawmaker said Monday that he remains opposed to switching how the state allocates its electoral votes, effectively blocking a bid by President Donald Trump and his allies to change the system in a bid for an extra electoral vote this fall.
Trump allies have pushed for a special legislative session intended for the Republican-controlled legislature to change Nebraska to a winner-take-all system instead of awarding electoral votes by congressional district.
“After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change,” state Sen. Mike McDonnell wrote in a letter obtained by NBC News.
The developments appear to cap months of deliberations over whether Nebraska lawmakers could change the way the state apportions its electoral votes in a way that would benefit Trump.
Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by congressional district, and the swing district around Omaha has twice gone to Democrats in recent years, giving them one electoral vote from an otherwise ruby-red state.
But if lawmakers changed that to a winner-take-all model, Trump would be all but certain to win all of Nebraska’s electoral votes.
And there’s a plausible scenario in which that could determine who becomes the next president.
For example, if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but lose every other swing state, she and Trump would be tied at 269 Electoral College votes under a winner-take-all setup in Nebraska with Trump winning the state.
2020 vs. 2024: Why this could still be a close election
By Mark Murray
The latest national NBC News poll is good news for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party — Harris is ahead of Donald Trump by 5 points among registered voters, her popularity has soared since July, and Harris leads Trump on better representing change.
But here’s a reminder about how close November’s election could still be, despite those positive findings for the Democrats: Our poll, in several ways, mirrors what our late October 2020 poll showed — and remember how close and competitive that race was.
Biden’s favorability in late Oct. 2020: 45% positive, 42% negative (+3)
Harris’ now: 48% positive, 45% negative (+3)
Trump’s favorability in late Oct. 2020: Trump: 43% positive, 52% negative (-9)
Trump’s now: 40% positive, 53% negative (-13)
Nation’s direction in late Oct. 2020: 31% right track, 60% wrong track
Nation’s direction now: 28% right track, 65% wrong track
Congressional preference in late Oct. 2020: Democrats 48%, Republicans 43% (D+5)
Congressional preference now: Democrats 48%, Republicans 46% (D+2)
“All of this movement to Harris essentially returns the race to where it was in 2020 at the end of the campaign: a very close election,” said pollster Jeff Horwitt, the Democratic half of the bipartisan polling duo responsible for conducting the NBC News poll.
And if we want another reminder about how close November could be, we have new New York Times/Siena battleground polls of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — all of which have Trump ahead in those critical states, but within the margin of error.
🗞️ Today’s top stories
- 📺 Debate prep: Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, is preparing for next week’s vice presidential debate with help from his wife, his advisers and a Minnesota congressman who is playing Gov. Tim Walz. Read more →
- 👀 Vance weighs in: Vance also responded to the controversies swirling around North Carolina GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson, telling NBC Philadelphia that the allegations that Robinson posted lewd comments on a pron site “aren’t necessarily reality.” Read more →
- 💲 Shutting down shutdown talk: Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., defied Trump and struck a deal to fund the government for three more months, which the House is expected to vote on this week. Read more →
- 🗣️ Transition talk: Trump advisers and allies are already preparing for a possible transition to a Trump administration, preparing lists of possible candidates for various jobs. Read more →
- 🛑 Pushing back: As Trump and Vance have targeted Haitian immigrants in their recent rhetoric, some Republicans in localities with sizable immigrant populations have felt compelled to push back, arguing those immigrants have boosted their communities. Read more →
- 🏠 Housing heartburn: As politicians look to address high housing costs, homebuilders say they are facing a myriad of problems, from high demand and costs to worker shortages and increased building restrictions. Read more →
- 🐔 Bawk-ing at a debate: The DNC is launching a new campaign calling Trump a “chicken” for not committing to another debate against Harris, complete with billboards that feature Trump in a chicken suit. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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