US pressure over Israel’s retaliation against Iran appears to have paid off – for now

Publicly and privately, the United States has been pressuring Israel to formulate its retaliatory attack against Iran very carefully.

The 1 October Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel (itself a retaliation in a series of escalatory actions by both sides) warranted a significant Israeli response – of that Joe Biden’s administration was in no doubt.

But President Biden’s diplomatic challenge was to persuade Israel to be smart with its response, knowing that anything too large could instigate a rapid spiral into all-out regional war which would draw America in.

The problem for Biden has been he’s seen that his ability to influence Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the past year – in Gaza and then Lebanon – has been limited.

Middle East latest: IDF confirms airstrikes on Tehran

And so, Biden’s position on how he thought Israel should retaliate has been articulated unusually publicly – he told reporters on the airport tarmac a few weeks ago that he didn’t think Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear sites or oil facilities.

Biden and his team recognised that Netanyahu may seek to seize a moment he’d long sought and carry out an overwhelming strike on Iran.

While this would be tactically attractive, especially after spectacular tactical Israeli successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the US administration believed it would be strategically very dangerous in provoking a broader conflict.

Privately, intense diplomacy has been ongoing. US secretary of state Antony Blinken has just returned from a tour of the region which included a trip to Israel.

Part of that was a continuation of the pressure on Israel to frame its retaliation in a way that restores deterrence but doesn’t prompt an escalation.

We don’t yet know how Iran will respond to the overnight events but the Americans are seeing the nature of the Israeli attacks as being in line with what the White House had advised.

In a late-night briefing in Washington, a senior US administration official told Sky News: “This should be the end of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran… As far as we’re concerned that should close out the direct exchange between Israel and Iran.

“Tonight, Israel carried out a direct military response against Iran,” the official said. They described them as “precision airstrikes against multiple targets across Iran and outside population areas”.

“The president and his national security team, of course, worked with the Israelis over recent weeks to encourage Israel to conduct a response that was targeted and proportional with low risk of civilian harm and that is precisely what transpired this evening.

“Should Iran choose to respond we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack.

“If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready and there will be consequences for Iran once again.

“However, we do not want to see that happen. This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran. Israel has made clear to the world that its response is now complete.”

Analysis:
Scale of retaliation will dictate whether Iran and Israel are on path to all-out war

The official also called on countries with influence to press Iran to stop attacks on Israel.

The official stressed “we did not participate in this military operation”.

This is a reflection of the fact that it would be politically very unwise to be engaged in an unpredictable military operation 10 days before the US election.