How will the outcome of the US election affect Australia, Aukus and our region?

More people have gone to a ballot box in 2024 than in any other year in human history. Billions have cast votes across scores of countries, including some of the largest, most powerful democracies on Earth.

But America’s remains the world’s global election, the most forensically examined, the most consequential all over the world. America matters.

“The US is still the most powerful actor in the international system,” Dr Michael Fullilove, executive director of the Lowy Institute, told the Guardian this week. “It is the richest company, with the biggest military, the biggest economy.

“It is the only country that runs a truly global foreign policy, the only country that can project power anywhere on Earth.

“It is the democratic, meritocratic superpower … it still attracts so many people around the world … the whole world is remarkably well-informed about the US election.”

And Australia’s future is bound up in America’s electoral decision. As one of America’s closest allies – supporters might argue for “staunchest”, opponents might claim “uncritical” – Australia’s economic, security and multilateral landscape is tied to that of the US and the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

How could the election of a second Donald Trump presidency impact Australia? Or how might the quasi-continuity of Vice-President Kamala Harris ascending to the White House?

Trump, necessarily, is the object of much of Australia’s focus. Harris, as Joe Biden’s vice-president, is the continuity candidate – promoting policy positions in line with the current administration – meaning a Trump victory would raise many more questions.

The election too, will be keenly fought over a host of domestic issues which have no direct – though some peripheral – impact on Australia. This includes issues such as reproductive rights (the overturning of Roe v Wade by the supreme court and a mooted national abortion ban), migration (particularly on the country’s southern border), gun control and law and order – issues excluded in this piece.

Watching the crescendo of an increasingly vituperative election campaign, Fullilove said that politically “America is running a high temperature at the moment”.

“My real hope for the election is that there is a clear result, that the loser accepts defeat, that the transfer of power is peaceful – that might sound like a low bar – but it is critical, for America and for the world.”

Values and democracy

Responding to the unpredictability of Trump’s first presidency, Australian politicians repeated the refrain that the Australian-US alliance runs deeper than a president or prime minister and that it is one founded on shared values and democratic principles.

Trump has said he would not be a dictator, “except on day one”. He said he would seek retribution on his political opponents: “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections”.

As commander-in-chief, he said he would consider using the military to attack domestic enemies: “It should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by the national guard, or if really necessary, by the military”.

Trump’s former chief of staff, Gen John Kelly, said this week Trump was a “fascist” who “certainly prefers the dictator approach to government”. Trump has repeatedly lied that he won the 2020 election and mused on “terminating” the constitution.

He told a rally in July that if he was elected president again, “you won’t have to vote any more”.

“In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not going have to vote.”

Harris has denounced Trump as a “fascist” who wants “unchecked power” and a military personally loyal to him.

In her speech to the Democratic national convention, she cited the supreme court’s split decision in July stating Trump enjoyed broad immunity for official acts taken while in office.

“Consider the power he [Trump] will have, especially after the United States supreme court ruled he will be immune from prosecution,” she said. “Imagine Donald Trump with no guardrails.”

Climate

Climate change is “one of the greatest scams of all time”, Trump said last month. “We will drill, baby, drill,” he told the Republican national convention when accepting the party’s nomination. “We will do it at levels that nobody’s ever seen before.”

He has said he would prohibit, by executive order, all offshore wind projects on the first day of his presidency, saying they kill whales.

In his first term, Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement (the US rejoined under Biden). But his campaign has indicated a second Trump presidency might re-abandon the Paris agreement, as well as the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) which underpins it – 198 countries have committed to the UNFCCC: none has left it.

The withdrawal of the US – the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter and the country that has contributed the largest share of historical emissions – would increase political uncertainty around the transition to net zero and deter investment. It would weaken the influence of the so-called umbrella group – of which Australia is a member – and give succour to climate laggards, such as the petrostates, to further slow global reduction efforts.

Some have argued that much of the impetus and funding for global emissions reductions is locked in and emissions reductions efforts are working on timescales far longer than a four-year presidential cycle.

But Michael Mann, distinguished professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University, has argued “a second Trump term is game over for the climate”.

Harris has called climate change an “existential threat”. As attorney general in California, she prosecuted oil companies for breaches of environmental laws. As vice-president, she was the tie-breaking vote in the Senate to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided about US$370bn to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 2005 levels by 2030.

But during Harris’s vice-presidency, the US produced and exported the most crude oil of any country at any time in history, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s figures. Crude oil production averaged 12.9m barrels a day in 2023, breaking the previous global record of 12.3m, set in 2019.

Trade and the economy

Trump is a fierce economic nationalist, hostile to free trade and intensely focused on America’s trade deficit, which he regards as a sign of weakness. He has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on all imports to the US, with a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and a 100% tariff on Chinese cars.

Economists argue the policy will lead to higher prices and lower growth. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated the proposed tariffs would lower the incomes of an average US household by US$1,700 a year: poor Americans would be more affected than the rich.

In September Trump said: “Together, we will deliver low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates and low inflation so that everyone can afford groceries, a car and a home.” He has promised to reduce regulation and cut taxes but some economists argue that his tax cuts would benefit America’s wealthiest while hurting the poorest.

Australia is not dependent on direct trade with the US but the majority of Australia’s trade is with China. If China’s economy, already weak, is damaged further by a trade war with the US, Australia will be exposed.

Harris has criticised Trump’s tariff policies, arguing they would act as a “sales tax on Americans” and lead to higher prices and inflation. But the Biden administration has extended Trump-era tariffs and used tariffs to influence trade on industries it sees as strategic – particularly in relation to China. The administration extended tariffs on solar panels in 2022 and, in May this year, increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100%.

As a senator, Harris opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement (involving Australia) negotiated by Barack Obama and from which Trump withdrew.

Defence and Aukus

While Trump has been critical of Nato, he has not criticised Australia as a military ally or the Aukus deal, a tripartite agreement (between the US, UK, and Australia) for Australia to acquire up to eight nuclear-powered submarines between now and the mid-2050s, the first in the 2030s.

Australia’s deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, said his government believed Trump would honour the agreement: “Every engagement we’ve had with the Trump camp in the normal process of speaking with people on both sides of politics in America, there is support for … Aukus,” he said.

But John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser – now a fierce critic of the former president – said of Aukus: “I think it could be in jeopardy.”

Fullilove asked Trump’s vice-presidential candidate JD Vance this year for his position on the agreement. Vance replied he was “a fan of Aukus”.

“I suspect that Aukus would be safe under Trump too,” Fullilove told the Guardian.

“Australia is an example of an ally that is contributing to deterrence and contributing to the US industrial base. You could imagine Trump threatening to unpick it, but my conclusion is it is safe.”

Aukus was signed by the Biden-Harris administration. The administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy commits to the deal but does not give a timeline: “Through the Aukus partnership, we will identify the optimal pathway to deliver nuclear-powered submarines to the Royal Australian Navy at the earliest achievable date.”

Airbases in Australia were used for US airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen this month. The defence department confirmed Australia provided support for the US strikes “through access and overflight for US aircraft in northern Australia”.

Israel-Gaza

Trump and Harris have declared their support for Israel and reiterated support for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.

The US continues to supply Israel with billions of dollars of weapons and munitions as Israel carries out its bombardment of Gaza, Lebanon and, this week, strikes on Iran.

The US is, by far, the largest supplier of arms to Israel: 69% of Israel’s imports of major conventional arms between 2019 and 2023 came from America, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The US has signed an agreement to provide Israel with $3.8bn in annual military aid under a 10-year-agreement.

More than 1,200 Israelis died in the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas. More than 42,000 people have died in Gaza since, including more than 16,000 children.

Trump has expressed his support for Israel’s invasion and bombardment of Gaza. He has also urged Israel to “finish up” the war because it is losing support.

“You have to finish up your war … you’ve got to get it done,” he told the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom. “We’ve got to get to peace. You can’t have this going on, and I will say Israel has to be very careful because you are losing a lot of the world. You are losing a lot of support.”

Trump said of Harris: “She hates Israel. If she’s president, I believe that Israel will not exist within two years from now.”

In his first term, Trump released a peace proposal he called a blueprint for a two-state solution: it would not have created an independent Palestinian state and was seen as strongly favouring Israel.

“Israel has a right to defend itself,” Harris said in September’s presidential debate.

She continued: “How it does so matters. Because it is also true far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed. Children. Mothers. What we know is that this war must end. It must end immediately, and the way it will end is we need a ceasefire deal and we need the hostages out.”

Harris has consistently reiterated support for a two-state solution.

The war in Ukraine

Nearly three years on since Russia invaded Ukraine – and a decade since its initial assault on Crimea – the US remains the largest backer of Ukraine’s war effort. It is by far the single biggest contributor of money and materiel, outspending the next largest contributor, Germany, by five to one.

Trump has made it abundantly clear he wants the war over – or, more precisely, he wants to stop paying for it.

He told a rally: “I think [Ukrainian president Volodymyr] Zelenskyy is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived. Every time he comes to our country he walks away with $US60bn.”

Influencing Republican allies in Congress, Trump stalled the last funding package from passing for months while Ukrainian forces – critically short of ammunition and artillery – struggled to hold back Russian advances. Trump’s manoeuvring was criticised as essentially backing Vladimir Putin’s irredentism.

Trump has also repeatedly claimed if re-elected he would end the war in a day – “I’ll have that done in 24 hours” – without detailing how. It is presumed a deal to stop the conflict would involve the ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia.

Trump’s disposition towards Ukraine has broader implications for the collective security principle underpinning Nato. Trump has compared Nato to a protection racket and said he would not protect “delinquent” allies.

“In fact, I would encourage them [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay! You gotta pay your bills.”

Trump has repeatedly upbraided European countries for failing to live up to their commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defence.

Harris has pledged to continue Biden’s support for Ukraine and for the Nato alliance. She said as vice-president “I helped mobilise a global response – more than 50 countries – to defend against Putin’s aggression.

“And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our Nato allies.”

Harris, however, has wavered on Ukraine being admitted as a member to Nato, saying the question was among the “issues that we will deal with if and when it arrives at that point”.

China

“Trump and Kamala Harris are two bowls of poison for Beijing. Both see China as a competitor or even an adversary,” Prof Zhao Minghao, from the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told the Financial Times.

Trump was hawkish towards China in his first term, confronting Beijing over what he argued were a suite of unfair practices and abuses such as intellectual property theft, currency manipulation and economic espionage. He pledged to “completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas” including electronics, steel, pharmaceuticals and rare earths. And he has flagged new laws to stop US companies from investing in China and a ban on federal contracts for any company that outsources to China.

His first administration rejected Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, condemning Beijing’s “campaign of bullying” of other countries.

Harris spoke on China in September, saying her government would work to ensure the US “is leading the world in the industries of the future and making sure America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century”.

“China is not moving slowly … if we are to compete, we can’t afford to, either.”

She condemned Trump as having “constantly got played by China” and said his administration had shipped advanced semiconductors to China, allowing them to upgrade their military.

“I will never hesitate to take swift and strong measures when China undermines the rules of the road at the expense of our workers, our communities, and our companies.”

The Pacific

Climate change is an urgent existential threat for the islands of the Pacific. Trump does not mention the climate crisis in his platform, nor is it mentioned in Agenda47.

The Heritage Foundation – the conservative thinktank behind the Trump-linked Project 2025 – has urged for partnership with the Pacific islands, but on American terms and in US interests. “The US must adopt a clear-eyed approach about putting American interests and objectives in the Pacific islands first,” it said.

The Biden-Harris administration have held two Pacific islands-US summits which have been big on ambition – with commitments of more than $1bn to resilience regionalism and sustainable development – but seen as lacking, so far, in application and results.

The 2022 US-Pacific partnership declared a shared vision for “a resilient Pacific region of peace, harmony, security, social inclusion, and prosperity”.

Fullilove said while Harris sat within the mainstream traditions of US foreign policy, “it’s hard to get a really accurate fix on what she thinks about the world”.

“At a broad level, she believes in American leadership, she believes in alliances, she prefers democracy to dictators, she more pro-trade than Trump. But beyond that, it’s very hard to know how she will approach Asia, the part of the world Australia is in, because she hasn’t been a prominent foreign policy voice in the Biden administration.”

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