The Taylor Swift factor: Can a celebrity swing the US Presidential elections?

In her post, Swift said, “Recently I was made aware that an AI of ‘me’ falsely endorsing Donald Trump’s presidential run was posted to his site…It brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter. The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.”

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She proceeded to praise Kamala Harris for her leadership skills, and her running mate Tim Walz for his concerted involvement in issues related to LGBTQ and women’s rights – causes which Swift has previously been a strong advocate for.

“I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election,” the star announced to her approximately 280 million followers, albeit all of them are not necessarily US citizens or of an age eligible to vote, given her global reach. Swift also urged people to register to vote with a link in her Instagram story redirecting to voter registration portals.

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While endorsements have been employed as an election strategy a multitude of times before this, Swift’s long-standing mass appeal has the potential to rally the forces for the Democratic party, in an otherwise tight race.

Celebrity Endorsements

Apart from Taylor Swift, the Democratic campaign trail has seen other popular figures such as Beyonce, Jennifer Lopez and Bruce Springsteen while Trump has boasted support from Elon Musk, Hulk Hogan and Mel Gibson, leading up to the 2024 elections.

Celebrity endorsements are not new to the political landscape and their influence can quantifiably make voters register, confirm their beliefs about candidates and in some cases, change previous voting patterns.

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Celebrities in the 21st century are advocates with mass public platforms that have the power to mobilise and persuade people without seeming to be employing propaganda. In a study from 2021 by California State University, researchers found that younger voters, first-time voters or those who were apolitical or undecided were more likely to be swayed by an endorsement from a celebrity they admire.

In fact a 2011 study by researcher Brubaker showed that in the United States, Democrat supporters were more likely to favour celebrity endorsements than Republican supporters.

According to the research by Harvard University’s Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, there is “rigorous evidence that [celebrity] voices are incredibly powerful” in promoting civic engagement and altering polling numbers. The study states that celebrities in American culture inform what people buy, wear, talk about, and thus who they consider a credible candidate while voting as well.

In the age of social media, celebrities take up most of the attention online, and according to the Harvard study, Gen Z and millennials spend an average of 180 minutes and 157 minutes daily on social media, with it often serving as their primary source of news.

Research from a survey conducted by the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics found that nearly two-thirds of people under the age of 30 do not feel that their education system prepared them for voting deadlines, how to research candidates, or register to vote – which could explain the dependence on celebrity figures to both educate as well as influence this new segment of voters.

The Taylor Swift factor

In 2018, Taylor Swift shared a single Instagram story, asking her then-112 million followers to register to vote through a portal. The portal reported that 65,000 new registrants were recorded on the site within 24 hours. In 72 hours, they managed to add 250,000 new registrants.

Following her recent endorsement for Kamala Harris, Swift’s call to action resulted in a significant increase in voter registration once again, with reports indicating that over 337,000 new voters registered after her post.

According to Morning Consult, an American business intelligence company – most of Swift’s fan base leans white, suburban and democratic. In fact approximately 53 percent of American adults identify as fans of the pop star. Her fanbase is evenly split across genders: 48% is male, and 52% is female, according to the survey.

Data from 2021, shows that only 28 percent of Americans consider themselves to be card-carrying Democrats or Republicans, which indicates that it’s a whole lot easier to identify with Swift than with a party at any rate.

A Times article noted that part of the reason her endorsement is expected to have an impact on voters is because Taylor Swift’s fairly neutral image as a “red-blooded” American from the countryside who happens to support the policies on gun control, women’s equality and LGBT rights has made her a bridge amid a polarised nation of Democrats and Republicans.

Hailing from Tennessee, a traditionally red state, with most of her career defined by her country roots, her support for Kamala Harris could be a way to clinch decisive votes.

A BBC article noted that since her endorsement not only have new voters registered but many people from her fanbase have also been persuaded to vote for the Harris-Walz duo, with several fans also independently campaigning to convince their own social circles to do the same.

A fan-based political group, came together shortly after Swift’s call to action, named “Swifties for Kamala” and according to the BBC has raised over $200,000 for Kamala Harris’ campaign, as of the middle of October.

Swift’s political activism is a relatively recent addition to her brand as a celebrity, with her being noticeably silent until the 2018 midterm elections, when she first revealed her political inclinations. Before that, Google noted that in 2016, “who is Taylor Swift voting for?” was one of the biggest queries on the site.

However, her impact since 2018 has only grown – during the 2020 presidential elections, where Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden, a study by Whitman Insights named her and basketball player Lebron James as two of the most influential motivators in the American public’s voting patterns, both of whom had declared their intention to vote for Biden at the time.

Criticisms and the limitations of endorsements

There is one caveat, which could dampen Swift’s impact on voters, especially those within her fan-base who identify as liberals. Just as Kamala Harris has faced flak for support to Israel amidst an on-going conflict in Gaza, many activists have also expressed disappointment in Swift’s silence on the death of Palestinian citizens.

This has caused many to disengage from her political opinions until she makes her stand clear, which she has not done yet. Just as there is “Swifties for Kamala Harris”, there is a “Swifties for Palestine” movement which has called for a response from their idol for months leading up to the election – with no answers from her or her team. Euronews reports that Swift may have lost more than 200,000 followers since the conflict began.

“The impact Taylor Swift would have would be enormous, and so her silence is frustrating,” a fan told NBC News. Swift also faced backlash from her American fanbase after her concert movie was aired in Israel while the country was launching strikes against citizens in Gaza.

While this will not dent the entirety of Swift’s base, as it has not for either the Republican or Democratic nominees of the election, the singer and cultural icon’s influence may not be as all-encompassing as was once believed.

While former White House Director of Strategic Communications, Alyssa Farah Griffin, considered that Swift could be “the only person to defeat Trump in an election” based on her approval ratings, her passive endorsement may get people to vote but may not actually overturn large scale trends, as people become more socially aware and polarising policy decisions on abortion, gun control, immigration and more becoming central to this election.

A 2021 study from the Institute for Politics, Chicago also added that celebrity endorsements were only as effective as how authentic the voter perceived you to be as well as whether there was an engaged involvement in grassroots movements. While an Instagram story could send you to a link and make you register, your on-ground realities and peers may just have more of an influence on the candidates you vote for and the issues that determine your vote.

The jury is still out on celebrity endorsements and whether Taylor Swift will give the Democrats the momentum they need, but if nothing else, it has energised voters to register and get involved in their local electoral campaigns.