Five reasons why Donald Trump can win US presidential election

A day before the presidential election in the United States, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, presidential hopefuls for the high-stake election, are locked in an extremely close fight in a knife-edge contest. The tight race has been indicated by several polls recently. The Republican and Democrat supporters will be awaiting the election results with bated breath. In India, lots of people want Trump to win because his victory is seen as largely positive for India given his open praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi despite his pledge to raise tariffs. Several factors look favourable for Trump’s victory.

Swing states

Each of the 50 states would hold its own vote for president. Under the complex Electoral College system, each state has a certain number of “electors”, based on population. Most states have a winner-take-all system that awards all electors to whoever wins the popular vote. With candidates needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win, elections tend to be decided in the hotly contested “swing states” with a history of alternating between Republican and Democratic candidates. This year, there are seven such battlegrounds, and every one is a toss-up within the margin of error: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A new poll from AtlasIntel claimed Trump is leading Harris in each of these swing states though the margin is narrow. The new poll comes amid Ann Selzer poll sent shockwaves that Kamala Harris is ahead in Iowa which is a reliably conservative turf that Donald Trump won both in 2016 and 2020.

The AtlasIntel survey said Trump is holding the widest margin in Arizona — with a 52.3 per cent to Harris 45.8 per cent. In Nevada, Trump has a 51.2 per cent to 46 per cent edge over Harris. In North Carolina, Trump holds a 50.5 per cent to 47.1 per cent lead. In Georgia, Trump is leading 50.1 per cent to Harris’ 47.6 per cent. In Michigan, it’s 49.7 per cent for Trump and 48.2 per cent for Harris. In Pennsylvania, the projection is 49.6 per cent for Trump and 47.8 per cent for Harris. Wisconsin is the closest — 49.7 per cent for Trump and 48.6 per cent for Harris.

Early trends

Nearly 75 million people have cast early ballots, as per an NYT story. Analyst Mark Halperin has predicted that if the early voting trends hold in which a large number of Republican voters are showing up in key battleground states, Trump will win. Early voting started in many states and according to reports Republicans are outperforming Democrats in early voting in battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina. “If the early vote numbers stay the way they are — and that’s a big if — we’ll almost certainly know before Election Day who’s going to win,” Halperin said less than two weeks ago.

“Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can partially understand the data, we’ll know Donald Trump is going to win on Election Day,” he added.

Immigration

Amid growing concerns over unchecked illegal immigration in North America and Europe, Trump ha sbeen able to ratchet up the anti-immigration rhetoric.At his final rally for the election cycle in Georgia on Sunday, Trump declared his intention to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, a law historically used to intern Japanese, Italian, and German Americans during World War II, and vowed to pursue the death penalty for undocumented immigrants who kill Americans. “The United States is now an occupied country,” he said, claiming, “There are thousands of people all over our towns and cities.”

Trump had also vowed to invoke the act at his mega Madison Square Garden rally in New York last month. “I will invoke the Alien Enemy Act of 1798… think of that. That’s how far back… they had law and order… They had some tough ones. Get ready,” he told his supporters.

In recent past, the issue of illegal immigration has been in news across the Western world and is seen to have deep traction among the masses as illegal immigrants seem to threaten the law and order as well as put pressure on civic amenities and services. Trump’s constant racking up of the issue could also get him votes from the large legal immigrant population which does not approve of illegal immigrants. He has also been able to paint Biden-Harris regime as a facilitator of mass illegal immigration through porous borders.

Harris is facing stiff political headwinds on immigration and border security, with public polls, voter interviews and campaign ads reflecting the challenge she is confronting in the final stage of a close-fought presidential race, Washington Post has reported.

Republicans have spent more than $243 million on ads referencing immigration since President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid in July, according to data from AdImpact, compared with more than $15 million in immigration-related ads from Harris and her allies, as per the WP report. GOP ads have included ominous images portraying a border in chaos and false claims that Biden and Harris released thousands of “illegal immigrants convicted of violent crimes.”

Foreign policy

When the US is getting entangled in foreign conflicts, voters might find Trump’s message of ending foreign wars attractive. The Ukraine war has dragged on, powered by huge financial support from the US. A large number of Americans don’t see value in the US money spent on foreign wars. With the chances of the US getting dragged in an expanded war in the Middle Eats, Trump’s rhetoric against America’s foreign wars might appeal to the voters.

Trump leads Harris when it comes to the question that who would better steer the country through the Ukraine and Middle East wars, according to a Wall Street Journal opinion poll of seven battleground states. According to a poll published last month, Harris and Trump witnessed neck-to-neck battle in the seven states that could decide the presidential polls.

In the swing states, 50% of respondents believe Trump is better equipped to manage Russia’s war in Ukraine, compared to 39% for Harris. Similarly, Trump holds a lead over Harris, 48% to 33%, on handling the Israel-Hamas conflict.

The economy

The economy is still the No. 1 issue in the presidential election, as per a recent NYT report. “Voters rated it as their top priority in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as they have in every Times/Siena poll this year. And while Trump remains the more trusted candidate in terms of handling the economy, Harris has closed much of the gap. Many voters say President Biden’s policies have hurt them — more than say the same about Mr. Trump’s policies — and economic concerns are a large driver of those feelings, recent polls show,” the report said.

“In a September Times/Siena poll, likely voters favored Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy by 13 percentage points; that lead had shrunk to just six percentage points in the latest Times/Siena poll, which was conducted last week. Other pollsters have shown similar gains for the vice president on the issue. Still, Ms. Harris’s recent headway on the economy in the Times/Siena polling has not translated into broader support nationally, as the race remains deadlocked,” the NYT report said.

(With inputs from agencies)