US Presidential polls 2024 underway: Who is winning the election right now?

As Americans cast their votes in one of the most tightly contested elections in recent history, polling stations across the United States are witnessing high voter turnout.Early votes and mail-in ballots have already seen over 8 million Floridians participate, highlighting the high stakes of the 2024 US Presidential election.

With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a close race, national polls suggest a near tie, with slight variations between states.

In Florida, Trump leads slightly, with several polls indicating he may secure the state’s critical 30 electoral votes. With only hours remaining before Election Day concludes, polling data offers a complex view of where each candidate stands.

Analyzing Polling Margins and Statistical Ties

Polling results show slight leads for both candidates, yet many fall within the margin of error, indicating what experts call a “statistical tie”, as mentioned in a report by USA Today.

This margin represents the uncertainty of the polls’ predictions and has become a crucial factor in understanding the nuances of this election.Pew Research Center reports that polling methodologies have evolved since the 2016 and 2020 elections, where Trump’s performance was underestimated.Also Read : Russell Brand is in trouble; he may be charged soon with alleged historic offences

Adjustments in methods now aim to provide a more accurate reflection of voter sentiment, particularly in swing states like Florida, where Trump currently has a 6.2% lead, according to 270towin’s latest data.

National Polls and Betting Odds Reflect a Divided Electorate

Across national polls, a variety of sources present differing perspectives on the frontrunner. ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight shows a close race, with Harris holding a slight edge at 48.1% to Trump’s 46.9%.

Meanwhile, The Economist’s final forecast has Harris with a 56% chance of winning, but the publication notes that this lead is narrow and that a Trump victory remains plausible, as per a report by USA Today.

Betting platforms also illustrate a divided sentiment. Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, shows Trump with a notable advantage, with a 62.3% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 37.9%.

RealClearPolling, another platform that tracks polling averages and betting odds, reveals that Trump holds a marginal lead in the spread, though it’s a narrow one at just +0.1.

State-Level Insights Highlight Key Battlegrounds

State-specific polls continue to play a vital role in predicting possible outcomes. In Florida, a survey by Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research indicates a 7-point lead for Trump over Harris, with support from 53% of likely voters.

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This result reflects the state’s complex demographic, with a slight advantage for Trump among key voter groups. The poll’s results are weighted by factors such as age, ethnicity, and gender to mirror Florida’s historical voting tendencies.

Expert Predictions: Allan Lichtman’s Unique Perspective

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate predictions in nearly every election since 1984, predicts a Harris victory. Lichtman bases his forecast on a system of 13 “keys,” which include economic performance, social unrest, and candidate charisma.

Despite his prediction favoring Harris, the historian acknowledges that this election remains exceptionally unpredictable.

Final Hours and High Stakes

With polling data fluctuating across various states and platforms, the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election remains uncertain. Each piece of polling data—from national averages to state-specific surveys—adds layers to the narrative of a divided electorate.

As voters make their final decisions, the fluctuating polls reflect a nation at a crossroads, where every vote could sway the balance.

As the clock ticks down, Americans await the results with bated breath, and pollsters continue to track the race hour by hour, eager to see if their predictions align with the final outcome.

FAQs:

When will national exit polls be released?
Vote counting in the US election often continues well beyond election night, with timing varying by state. The U.S. spans four primary time zones—Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific—affecting when polls close and results begin to come in. Although Election Day is officially on November 5, many states allowed early voting. Initial results are expected within hours after the first polls close at 6 p.m. ET.

When will counting of votes start in US?
Vote counting in the US election often extends past election night, with timing that varies by state. With the country spanning four major time zones—Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific—poll closing times and result announcements also differ accordingly.among the time zones. Many states had early voting though November 5 is the election day. Results are expected to start coming in just hours after the first polls close at 6pm ET.