College football bowl projections for championship week: CFP picks and four bowls we want to see | Sporting News

We are going to talk enough about the 12-team College Football Playoff, the first-round pairings and everything that comes with it in December. 

Inevitably, you’ll hear a tagline that asks a question that feels like a statement. Do the rest of the bowls even matter? Like we say every year, Bowl Season means something different to everybody, and there are a handful of bowls in our latest projections that we would be in for depending on who opts out in those games. 

What about these matchups? 

SDS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl: Colorado vs. Michigan

If Deion Sanders is true to his word and Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter play, how fun would it be to watch them go against a Michigan defense that limited Ohio State to 10 points? Would Michigan stars such as Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant be prompted to play in this game? What about Will Johnson – another projected top-five pick who missed most of the season with a toe injury? 

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Miami vs. USC 

It would be cool to see Miami’s Cam Ward in this spot, but we’re not sure he will play if the Hurricanes do not make the College Football Playoff. It’s still a fun matchup and a chance for Trojans freshman Jayden Maiava to improve. 

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Illinois vs. South Carolina 

The Illini and Gamecocks each won nine games in the regular season, and this would be the proverbial springboard game in 2025. We like the Cheez-Its, too. Who doesn’t? 

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Clemson vs. Iowa 

Would Dabo Swinney or Kirk Ferentz accept the “Mayo Bath?” That’s all we need to see. 

MORE: SN’s Top 25 after Week 14

The penultimate set of College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled Tuesday. Sporting News will have weekly bowl projections leading up to the unveiling of the first 12-team playoff field on Dec. 8. 

The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 20, and three on Saturday, Dec. 21. The quarterfinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31), Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). 

The semifinals will be played at the Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 9) and Cotton Bowl Classic (Jan. 10). The CFP national championship is Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

Here are our bowl projections for Week 14.

MORE: Projected College Football Playoff field after Week 14

College football bowl predictions 2024

There are 35 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups: 

College Football Playoff first-round predictions 

A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus: 

Is Dabo Swinney right? This does look like the “SEC-Big Ten Invitational,” and this is a world where Indiana and Alabama would be underdogs on the road. Which one has a better chance to pull the upset? Ohio State’s Will Howard (180.5), Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke (175.2) and Penn State’s Drew Allar (171.0) all rank in the top five in the FBS in passer efficiency. How would they fare against SEC defenses? Ohio State coach Ryan Day faces the most pressure here after the regular-season finale loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes (10.8 ppg.) and Volunteers (13.1 ppg.) rank first and fourth, respectively, in scoring defense. Notre Dame starts the playoff against Arizona State, though we still think there is room for the Sun Devils to claim a first-round bye. Those are two of the hottest teams in the FBS. 

College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites: 

There would be a lot of complaining from Penn State and Notre Dame fans here knowing they will be ranked in the top five but Boise State and SMU had first-round byes. The Broncos would get a chance to relive their Fiesta Bowl glory against the Nittany Lions. The Irish and Mustangs met for the first time since the Irish won 59-6 on Nov. 11, 1989 – which was the  first season after SMU returned from the “Death Penalty.” With this seeding structure, it is a rematch between the Ducks and Buckeyes and a three-match between the Longhorns and Bulldogs. This is yet another reason we need to fix the seeding in the new-look College Football Playoff. 

College Football Playoff semifinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites: 

There is some merit to that path for the No. 5 seed, and Penn State takes advantage and gets a rematch with the Ducks in the Cotton Bowl Classic. Oregon takes the Cotton Bowl route for travel purposes. We don’t love that the Ducks have to go through the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions again – but there will be rematches. Accept it. The Orange Bowl between the Longhorns and Irish would attract more interest. Notre Dame (11.6 ppg.) and Texas (12.1 ppg.) rank second and third, respectively, in scoring defense. That would be an instant classic. 

College Football Playoff championship pick 

A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2024-25 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. 

This is the chalky answer, without a doubt, but the Ducks and Longhorns have been the two teams that have avoided chaos throughout the regular season. The bye week matters, and Dillon Gabriel – who led Oklahoma to a 34-30 victory against Texas in the Red River Rivalry on Oct. 7, 2023 – engages in another duel with Ewers.