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AFC Playoff Picture: How Bills loss impacts race for No. 1 seed with Chiefs, Steelers | Sporting News

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AFC Playoff Picture: How Bills loss impacts race for No. 1 seed with Chiefs, Steelers | Sporting News

Home-field advantage in the playoffs doesn’t guarantee anything — the Bills learned that last season  but it certainly helps. Buffalo’s path to the ultimate home-field advantage took a hard hit on Sunday.

The Bills suffered a 44-42 loss to the Rams in Los Angeles, struggling to contain a healthy Matthew Stafford-led offense. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp combined for more than 250 yards, and even a second half full of Josh Allen heroics couldn’t beat the Rams’ offensive fireworks.

Buffalo already clinched the AFC East title, ensuring the team’s playoff run will start at home. A first-round bye, however, is looking like an uphill battle after the Bills’ third loss of the season.

Here’s a look at the updated AFC standings and where the Bills, Chiefs, and Steelers stand in the race for the conference’s top seed.

NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule

AFC playoff standings

Seed Team Record
1 Chiefs 11-1
2 Bills 10-3
3 Steelers 10-3
4 Texans 8-5
5 Chargers 8-4
6 Ravens 8-5
7 Broncos 8-5

The Chiefs’ lead atop the AFC stretched to 1.5 games with the Bills’ loss, though Kansas City still has to do its part against the Chargers to keep that lead above one game. 

The Bills and Steelers, in a virtual tie for the No. 2 seed, are still well clear of the Texans (8-5), but earning the No. 2 seed could be the difference between playing the divisional round at home or on the road.

Bills playoff picture

The Bills’ chances of landing the No. 1 seed took a major blow on Sunday, and the Chiefs’ “Sunday Night Football” matchup with the Chargers could make it a real uphill climb for Buffalo. A Chiefs win would create two games of separation between the two contenders, meaning the Bills would need Kansas City to slip up at least twice over its last four games if they wanted to pull even atop the AFC.

The Bills already clinched the AFC East, so they are guaranteed a top-four seed in the AFC.

MORE: Updated 2025 NFL Draft order after Week 14 shuffle

Chiefs playoff picture

The Chiefs can breathe a bit easier after the Bills’ loss, as a Buffalo win and Kansas City loss would have dropped Patrick Mahomes and co. to the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

There is nothing the Chiefs can do to drop from the No. 1 seed on Sunday, whether they win or lose against the Chargers, but a victory would push their lead over the Bills and Steelers to two games with just four remaining. 

Steelers playoff picture

The Steelers gained a game on the Bills with their win and Buffalo’s loss on Sunday, putting them in a virtual tie for the No. 2 seed in the AFC. A Chiefs loss would put Pittsburgh in a strong position to make a run at the No. 1 seed. The Steelers host the Chiefs on Christmas, so they would control their own fate against Kansas City.

At 10-3, the Steelers have a two-game lead atop the AFC North and could lock up the division as soon as Week 16 if they can finish off a season sweep of the Ravens.

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