Alabama playoff scenarios, explained: How SMU, Georgia win or loss would impact 2024 CFP rankings | Sporting News

The Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) were in good shape to make the first 12-team College Football Playoff under coach Kalen DeBoer heading into conference championship weekend. 

The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 11 in the fifth College Football Playoff rankings, one spot ahead of No. 12 Miami. That would have put Alabama as the No. 12 seed in the bracket, meaning a first-round road matchup on either Dec. 20 or Dec. 21. 

However, No. 17 Clemson beat No. 11 SMU 34-31 in the ACC championship game on Saturday. That means the Tigers snagged an automatic berth, and the debate now falls between the Mustangs (11-2) and the Crimson Tide. That likely will be for the last spot in the CFP. 

A look at Alabama’s College Football Playoff outlook heading into selection weekend: 

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Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, the College Football Playoff committee chairman, was asked about why Alabama leap-frogged Miami in the latest rankings. 

“It came down to a difference in their body of work as we evaluated Alabama and Miami, not just wins, not just losses but the totality of the season and how those teams performed,” Manuel said on the CFP teleconference Tuesday. 

The Crimson Tide have a decided advantage in strength of schedule and strength of victory against the Hurricanes. Alabama is 3-1 against teams that are in the latest set of CFP rankings. Miami is 0-1 and lost two of its last three games.

Alabama did not make the SEC championship game, and Miami (10-2) did not make the ACC championship game. That leaves little wiggle room for change between the two; meaning Alabama will stay ahead of Miami in the final College Football Playoff rankings. 

The ACC championship game, however, had a more direct impact on where Alabama fits in the final rankings. 

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Alabama playoff scenarios 

Clemson won ACC championship game 

This creates an intriguing debate for the last spot. Clemson gets the automatic berth for the ACC and will be the fifth-highest conference championship. This would be locked in despite the fact the Tigers lost to a pair of SEC schools in Georgia and South Carolina in non-conference play.

That pits SMU – which is ranked three spots higher than Alabama – against the Crimson Tide for the last at-large spot. The Mustangs finished unbeaten in ACC play in the regular season, but would that second loss be enough to drop them behind Alabama? Before the game, we said SMU would stay ahead of Alabama if the game against Clemson was close. The Mustangs rallied from a 17-point deficit to tie the game before the Tigers kicked the game-winning field goal. 

Manuel did not tip how that scenario might unfold within the committee. 

“That is something that we will decide in the room at the conclusion of those games when we evaluate what happens in the championship,” Manuel said. “I can’t sort of go into the future and tell you exactly how the outcome of that discussion will be.” 

Georgia loses SEC championship game 

This could become an interesting argument in the seeding because it would give the Bulldogs a third loss. Georgia is No. 5 in the latest rankings and the No. 7 seed in the bracket. The Bulldogs play No. 2 Texas (10-1) in the SEC championship game on Saturday. 

Why does this matter? Alabama beat Georgia 41-34 on Sept. 28, and that head-to-head victory might create a debate for one of the final spots if Clemson gets an automatic berth by beating SMU in the ACC championship game. 

College Football Playoff bracket 2024

We gave the at-large spot to SMU in our final College Football projections despite the loss to Clemson, however, we would not be suprised if Alabama gets that No. 12 seed in the field. The Crimson Tide beat Georgia, which won the SEC championship, and also had head-to-head victories against top-25 teams in Missouri and South Carolina. Alabama is 3-1 against teams in the CFP rankings. SMU is 0-2 with losses to BYU and Clemson. Is two losses better than three given SMU had to play an extra game? We are about to find out.