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As US Fed hints at rate cut speculation begins among central bankers

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As US Fed hints at rate cut speculation begins among central bankers

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes. | Credit: Bloomberg

6 min read Last Updated : Aug 15 2024 | 9:39 PM IST


US central bankers have kept their target for short-term borrowing costs in the 5.25 per cent-5.50 per cent range since last July, when they completed their 2022-2023 rate-hike campaign to combat soaring prices as global economies recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic recession.

 


Inflation and the labor market have both cooled appreciably since then, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell says policymakers think the time for cutting the policy rate is approaching.

 


When and by how much is a subject of intense speculation. Fed policymakers say the decision will be driven by the economic data. It will also undoubtedly be shaped by competing views among policymakers over how to interpret that data.

 


Here is a look at the latest comments from Fed policymakers, sorting them under the labels “dove” and “hawk” as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation.


For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.

 

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk Adriana Jerome Powell, Fed Michelle Kugler, Chair, permanent Bowman, Governor, voter: “If we were Governor, permanent to see inflation permanent voter: “I’m moving down … voter: “We need cautiously more or less in to be patient optimistic line with and avoid that we’re expectations, undermining seeing growth remains continued progress and reasonably strong, progress on the type of and the labor lowering progress that market remains inflation by we need to get consistent with overreacting to back to 2 per cent” current conditions, any single data inflation. then I think a rate point.”

Aug 10, July 16, 2024 cut could be on the 2024 table at the September meeting.” July 31, 2024 John Williams, New Thomas Barkin, York Fed President, Richmond Fed permanent President, 2024 voter: April to voter: “You’ve June data “seems to got some time be getting us in a healthy closer to a economy to disinflationary figure out trend that we’re whether this is looking for. I an economy would like to see that’s gently more data to gain moving into a further normalizing confidence.” July state that will 17, 2024 allow you to, in a steady deliberate way, normalize rates or … is this one where you really do have to lean into it.

Aug 8, 2024 Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: “It is Jeffrey Schmid, too early to tell Kansas City Fed whether the recent President, 2025 slowdown in the voter: “If disinflationary inflation process will be continues to long-lasting. The come in low, my better reading for confidence will April is grow that we encouraging.” May are on track to 20, 2024 meet the price stability part of our mandate, and it will be appropriate to adjust the stance of policy.”

Aug 8, 2024 Michael Barr, Vice Lorie Logan, Chair of Dallas Fed Supervision, President, 2026 permanent voter: voter: “We’re “We will need to going to need allow our to see several restrictive policy more months of some further time that data to to continue its really have work.” May 20, 2024 confidence in our outlook that we’re heading to 2 per cent.” June 18, 2024 Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Governor, permanent Minneapolis Fed voter: “I believe President, 2026 the time to lower voter: “We’re the policy rate is in a very good drawing closer.” position right July 17, 2024. now to take our time, get more inflation data, get more data on the economy, on the labor market, before we have to make any decisions.

June 16, 2024 Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: “We are very attentive to what is happening with the unemployment rate … The situation could change very quickly and we would be responsive.” July 10, 2024 Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: “Our minds are quite open to adjusting the policy rate in coming meetings.

Aug 5, 2024 Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: “I’m open to something happening in terms of us moving before the fourth quarter .” Aug 15, 2024 Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, 2025 voter: “It now appears the balance of risks on inflation and unemployment has shifted …the time may be nearing when an adjustment to moderately restrictive policy may be appropriate.” Aug 15, 2024 Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: “We’re tight…if we are too tight for too long, we’re going to have to come to grips with what that’s going to do to the real side of the economy.”

Aug 8, 2024. Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: “If the data continue the way that I expect, I do believe that it will be appropriate soon to begin adjusting policy and easing how restrictive the policy is.”




Aug 9, 2024 Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: “If all of it happens to be as forecasted, I think one rate cut would be appropriate by year’s end.” June 17, 2024 Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25 per cent-5.5 per cent, was in July 2023. As of June 2024, seven policymakers were at the median forecast for one rate cut this year; eight policymakers thought two rate cuts this year would be appropriate; and four thought none would be. The June meeting was the last for Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who retired at the end of June; Beth Hammack, her successor, starts Aug. 21 and will vote at the Fed’s September meeting. Neither is included in this dove-hawk matrix.

 


The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

 


Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

First Published: Aug 15 2024 | 9:39 PM IST

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