Bain: Non-store sales to drive 90% of holiday growth; five tips to outperform

Bain & Company expects non-store sales to grow 9.5% year-over-year.

Retailers who hope to outperform this holiday season should emphasize value — no matter the price point.

That’s one of five recommendations from Bain & Company, whose annual U.S. retail holiday forecast predicts “sub-average” 3% growth in U.S. retail sales, which is significantly lower than the 5.2% ten-year average. The global consulting firm estimates U.S. retail sales will reach a total of nearly $941 billion during November and December. (Bain’s five tips for outperforming are at the end of the article.)

The Bain forecast for slower holiday growth is similar to one released last week by Deloitte, which predicted holiday sales are likely to increase between 2.3% and 3.3% between November and January.

Bain expects non-store sales to grow 9.5% year-over-year, driving about 90% of the holiday growth. In-store sales will remain relatively flat, at a growth rate of 0.5% year-over-year, the lowest rate since the Great Recession in 2008. 

In-store growth will vary across categories, according to the Bain report, with general merchandise (excluding department stores), clothing and accessories, and grocery seeing the strongest growth. Department stores, sporting and hobby stores, furniture, building and gardening stores will experience negative single-digit growth.