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Big Ten championship scenarios, explained: How Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana can reach 2024 title game vs. Oregon | Sporting News
No. 1 Oregon qualified for the Big Ten championship game in its first year in the new-look, 18-team conference in 2024.
Who will the Ducks face in the Big Ten championship game? That remains an open-ended question that favors No. 2 Ohio State with one week left in the regular season. Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31 on Oct. 12, and the schools are headed toward a rematch – if the Buckeyes beat rival Michigan on Saturday.
Who else still has a chance? No. 4 Penn State and No. 10 Indiana still have a path to the Big Ten championship game, but they may know their fate before they step on the field Saturday. The Nittany Lions face Maryland at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Hoosiers play Purdue at 7 p.m. ET.
How will the Big Ten puzzle shake out? A look at the scenarios for the remaining Big Ten contenders heading into Rivalry Week.
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Big Ten championship scenarios 2024
Four teams are still in the Big Ten championship game picture. A look at their paths to the conference championship game. The Big Ten scenarios also can be seen here.
Oregon (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)
– The Ducks have clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game, and they clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference with a victory against Washington in Week 14.
– If the Ducks lose to Washington, then they could fall to the No. 2 seed if Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State win on Saturday. In that scenario, Oregon is the No. 2 seed behind the Buckeyes.
– If Oregon and Ohio State lose, then the Ducks would be the No. 2 seed behind either Penn State or Indiana. In that event, the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers’ spot would be decided by cumulative conference winning percentage. Right now that favors Penn State.
Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten)
– Ohio State clinches a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a victory against Michigan.
– If Ohio State beats Michigan, Oregon loses to Washington, Penn State beats Maryland and Indiana beats Purdue, then there will be a four-way tie for first place. The Buckeyes would get the No. 1 seed because they would have the highest cumulative conference winning percentage (see chart below).
– If Ohio State loses to Michigan, then they need Penn State to lose to Maryland and Indiana to lose to Purdue to make the Big Ten championship game.
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Penn State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten)
– Penn State needs to beat Maryland and Michigan to beat Ohio State. The Nittany Lions would be in the Big Ten championship game. Penn State has a higher cumulative conference winning percentage than Indiana, and that would be a difference-maker.
– The Ducks and Nittany Lions have a close cumulative winning percentage, so if Ohio State and Oregon lose and Penn State wins the Nittany Lions would have a shot at the No. 1 seed.
Indiana (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten)
– Indiana needs to beat Purdue. The Hoosiers also need Ohio State to beat Michigan and Maryland to beat Penn State to make the Big Ten championship game. The cumulative conference winning percentage does not favor the Hoosiers.
Big Ten cumulative conference winning percentage
The fourth tiebreaker in the Big Ten is cumulative conference winning percentage. Here is a look at how those four teams stack up with that tie-breaker heading into Rivalry Week:
| OPPONENT | OREGON | INDIANA | OSU | PENN ST |
| Indiana | – | – | 7-1 | – |
| Illinois | 5-3 | – | – | 5-3 |
| Iowa | – | – | 5-3 | |
| Maryland | 1-7 | 1-7 | – | 1-7 |
| Michigan | 4-4 | 4-4 | 4-4 | |
| Michigan State | 3-5 | 3-5 | 3-5 | |
| Minnesota | – | – | – | 4-4 |
| Nebraska | – | 3-5 | 3-5 | |
| Northwestern | – | 2-6 | 2-6 | |
| Ohio State | 7-1 | 7-1 | – | 7-1 |
| Oregon | – | – | 8-0 | |
| Penn State | – | – | 7-1 | |
| Purdue | 0-8 | 0-8 | 0-8 | 0-8 |
| Rutgers | – | – | – | |
| UCLA | 3-6 | 3-6 | – | 3-6 |
| USC | – | – | – | 4-5 |
| Wisconsin | 3-5 | – | – | 3-5 |
| Washington | 4-4 | 4-4 | – | 4-4 |
| RECORD | 30-43 | 27-46 | 39-33 | 31-43 |
| Win % | .410 | .370 | .541 | .419 |
Who will play in the Big Ten championship game?
We predicted Ohio State will beat Michigan 30-13 on Rivalry Week, which would eliminate any chance for the Nittany Lions or Hoosiers to make the Big Ten championship game.
That would set up a rematch between the Buckeyes and Ducks. The winner likely would get the No. 1 seed in the first 12-team College Football Playoff and get a first round bye. Their quarterfinal game will be on Jan. 1 at the Rose Bowl. The loser likely would fall to either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed and would host a first-round playoff game. Penn State and Indiana are good bets to make the College Football Playoff, too.
The Big Ten championship game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 7 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game will be televised on CBS.
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