Boise State playoff scenarios, explained: How win, loss in MWC title game would impact CFP rankings | Sporting News

The Boise State Broncos are having a historic season in 2024. Sitting at 11-1, the Broncos are looking at their best finish since reaching 11 wins in 2017. 

Thanks to the expanded 12-team playoff field that guarantees a Group of Five team can earn a postseason spot, the Broncos look on track for their first-ever College Football Playoff bid.

Although Boise State has looked like a playoff team all season and has been ranked in the 12-team field consistently for weeks, there is still an important game waiting in front of it. Let’s run through the playoff scenarios for the Boise State Broncos heading into Championship Saturday. 

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Is Boise State in the College Football Playoff?

Boise State is currently ranked 10th but seeded fourth in the final CFP bracket before Championship Saturday. That means that as things stand right now, the Broncos would have a first-round bye as the fourth-highest conference champion. 

But this could change depending on what happens on Friday night. That’s because Boise State is set to take on the UNLV Rebels in the Mountain West Championship game on its home turf. Boise State is hosting the game as the higher-ranked team in the MWC standings. 

A lot of where Boise State ends up in the CFP’s final 12 rankings depends on what happens in that MWCCG on Friday. So, let’s run through the scenarios there. 

Boise State playoff scenarios

Boise State wins Mountain West championship game

• With a Boise State victory, the Broncos will get an automatic bid as the MWC champions 
• The Broncos will likely get a No. 4 seed, which would give them an automatic first-round bye. It would also put them ahead of the Big 12 champion between Arizona State and Iowa State, but that isn’t guaranteed. 

The best chance for Boise State to guarantee a playoff bid on Sunday is with a victory over UNLV. The Broncos beat UNLV 29-24 on the road earlier this season. Depending on if Boise State/the winner of the Big 12 title game has a more impressive victory, that could dictate which team ends up with the No. 4 seed. If a fourth seed is not awarded to the Broncos, they will likely fall somewhere within the 10-12 range. That would send Boise State on the road for the first round of the playoff. 

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Boise State loses Mountain West championship game

• With a home loss to UNLV, the Rebels would earn an automatic bid as the MWC champion
• A loss here would put Boise State at 11-2. The Broncos would still have a shot at an at-large bid, but the chances would be slim. 

A loss would drastically hurt Boise State, especially with this game being at home, where the Broncos haven’t lost all season. If Boise State falls to UNLV, which it beat once already this season, there’s a real possibility of Miami, Alabama, and the Big 12 champion getting a spot at 10-12 over the two-loss Broncos

College Football Playoff bracket 2024

As you can see, the best shot for Boise State to make a playoff bid is to beat UNLV for a second time this season on Friday night. That would guarantee the Broncos a spot, in addition to the possibility of a first-round bye. A loss to UNLV may not knock Boise State out of the playoff mix entirely, but it would drastically lower its chances at a bid.