Jobs
Consumer Confidence Suffers Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2021—Job Market Hopes Waver Before Election
Topline
Consumer confidence fell this month by the largest amount since August 2021, according to a monthly survey released Tuesday morning by the economic research firm Conference Board, as discontent among Americans about the state of the economy looms large weeks before the election.
Customers at a New York City farmers market last month.
Key Facts
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell from 105.6 in August to 98.7 in September, far below consensus economist forecasts of 104, according to FactSet.
The index, which checks Americans’ temperatures on a host of economic issues, such as expected inflation and job prospects, hit its lowest level since June.
The proportion of respondents expecting higher incomes and more jobs available decreased last month while the percentage of individuals anticipating worse business conditions rose.
“The plunge in consumer confidence in September underscores the growing pressure on many households as the labor market weakens,” wrote Nationwide economist Ben Ayers in emailed comments, adding Americans are looking “warily” at the direction of the economy.
Contra
The survey concluded Sept. 17, the day before the Federal Reserve rolled out the first interest rate cut since March 2020, a move which can boost consumer attitudes as borrowing costs grow less costly, leading to more hiring.
Key Background
The worse-than-expected consumer confidence reading comes as voters identify the economy as their top issue heading into the presidential election. Though the economy remains strong overall, recent data has pointed to weakness in the labor market—the unemployment rate of 4.2% last month was 0.5 percentage points above where it was at the start of the year and inflation is still above the 2% historical target. “Consumers are clearly concerned about the implications of the upcoming election, the increasing conflict around the world, and the stubbornly high cost of food and credit,” wrote Harris Financial Group managing partner Jamie Cox in emailed comments Tuesday. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, a rival reading on the state of the U.S. consumer, actually rose in September to a four-month high, though both indexes remain far lower than they were from 2017 to 2019, before the pandemic upended the economy.
Further Reading
MR Beast Casino Guide: Methods and Terms of Withdrawal – London Post
Elon Musk on what US can ‘learn’ from India: Counts … – Times of India
‘Busiest Thanksgiving ever’: How the TSA plans to handle record air travel
Republicans push back against claims Trump intelligence pick is ‘compromised’
Foul weather could hamper Thanksgiving travel across the U.S. – The Weather Network
Record dryness in US Northeast should change water behavior
Trump pick Lutnick’s firm in talks with Tether for US$2 billion bitcoin project
More rain and snow in US could affect Thanksgiving travel, forecasters warn
US Republican Rand Paul opposes Trump plan for military to round up immigrants
