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Data shows US economy pacing for ‘healthy’ growth — but new ‘headwinds’ loom

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2 months ago

September 23, 2024

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Data shows US economy pacing for ‘healthy’ growth — but new ‘headwinds’ loom

The US economy appears on track for another solid quarter of growth, new data showed Monday, while also pointing to potential “headwinds” in the manufacturing sector and with price pressures.

S&P Global’s flash US composite PMI, which captures activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors, came in at 54.4 in September, down from 54.6 in August. Economists had expected the index to tick down to 54.3.

Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the data shows the US economy is pacing for “healthy” growth in the third quarter, which will come to a close at the end of September.

“The sustained robust expansion of output signaled by the PMI in September is consistent with a healthy annualized rate of GDP growth of 2.2% in the third quarter,” Williamson said in the release.

After a better-than-expected update on retail sales in August, economists have been expecting a solid third quarter of growth for the US economy. As of Sept. 18, the Goldman Sachs economics team had been tracking third quarter GDP at 3%, while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool saw 2.9% annualized growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week also cited the still-healthy economy as a reason to cut interest rates and not get behind the curve.

“The US economy is in good shape,” Powell said. “It’s growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down. The labor market is in a strong pace. We want to keep it there.”

There were some signs of slowing within Monday’s S&P Global data, however.

The services component of S&P’s report showed the index registered 55.4 this month, down from 55.7 in August. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity continued to lag, falling to a 15-month low of 47 from 47.9 the month prior.

Any reading above 50 for these indexes represents expansion in the sector; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Additionally, prices charged rose at the fastest rate in six months, which Williamson noted could be cause for concern on the inflation front.

“The early survey indicators for September point to an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace, albeit with a weakened manufacturing sector and intensifying political uncertainty acting as substantial headwinds,” Williamson said. “A reacceleration of inflation is meanwhile also signaled, suggesting the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target as it seeks to sustain the economic upturn.”

The survey’s future output index, which measures optimism about economic output in the year ahead, hit its lowest level since October 2022 too.

“Business sentiment, demand, hiring and investment are being subdued by uncertainty surrounding the Presidential Election, casting a shadow over the outlook for the year ahead at many firms,” Williamson wrote.