Donald Trump back in White House: World leaders who win and lose from his return

Leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman may anticipate smoother negotiations with reduced scrutiny, while Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to welcome a supportive, familiar ally in Donald Trump.

However, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky may face challenges, as Donald Trump tends to prioritise countries that align with US policies or show strength.

Among the world leaders who will be seen as either friends or foes in Trump’s world, India and several other countries are likely to be viewed as winners with his return to the White House.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi: Trump’s return is seen as a positive development for Prime Minister Modi, who has enjoyed a strong relationship with the former US president. Both leaders have praised each other publicly and built personal ties over the years.

With his return to office, Modi is likely to continue benefiting from a favourable position, as the focus on strong bilateral ties will align with Trump’s policies.

Trump’s stance on negotiating peace with Russia could allow Prime Minister Modi to maintain close ties with Moscow, which is a key partner for India in terms of energy and defence.

Earlier, the Joe Biden administration had shown discontent with New Delhi when Modi met Putin in Moscow in July. Moreover, the Trump administration may not back Canada’s effort to hold India’s government responsible for the alleged killings of dissidents, reported Bloomberg.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: The kingdom’s de facto ruler, will see an opportunity to revive efforts for a long-awaited security pact with the US. Trump, who played a key role in the Abraham Accords that established diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab nations, is expected to focus on expanding this framework to include Saudi Arabia.

If Trump succeeds in brokering a peace deal between Israel and the kingdom, it could pave the way for the US to extend its security support to Saudi Arabia. This would allow the kingdom to shift its focus to economic development and reduce concerns over potential threats from Iran.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: He has had a strained relationship with outgoing President Joe Biden but is expected to welcome the arrival of a long-time ally in the White House.

Donald Trump is likely to reinforce US support for Israel, unlike Biden, who paused some military aid over concerns about Palestinian civilian suffering in the context of Israel’s war on Hamas, a group the US designates as a terrorist organisation. The incoming US leader is expected to be more sympathetic to Netanyahu’s stance on pursuing the fight against Iranian proxies and opposing the establishment of a Palestinian state, despite the risks of sparking a larger regional conflict.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin: He sees Donald Trump’s comeback as an opportunity to take advantage of divisions in the West and extract further gains in Ukraine. The incoming US president is expected to strain the unity of NATO allies and put the future of aid for Ukraine in doubt with his ‘America First’ policy.

However, his unpredictability has raised concerns in the Kremlin that Trump could, in the short-term, escalate the conflict to force a settlement on Putin, with potentially disastrous consequences, including a nuclear confrontation.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: She has firmly positioned herself as a pro-Atlantic leader, yet she remains a hard-right politician. While she had promised to cooperate with whichever candidate won the US election, her close ties with Elon Musk are expected to give her influence with the new US president. Meloni is likely to see herself as a bridge between NATO, the EU, and the White House.

Francesco Talò, Meloni’s former chief diplomatic advisor, stated, “If Trump returns to the White House, NATO won’t break, but it will get more challenging. The other major issue is China, and we must recognise that Europeans cannot act as mediators between the US and China. We are part of the West, and it is crucial for the West to stay united. This means we must avoid trade wars at all costs.”

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Turkey may look forward to improved relations under a Trump presidency. Erdogan and Trump have maintained a friendly rapport, often communicating by phone, with Erdogan even calling him “my friend.” Unlike the Biden administration, Trump’s return could provide Erdogan with more direct access to Washington.

Trump’s anti-war stance and focus on trade could benefit Erdogan, but his criticism of Israel may create tensions. Additionally, Turkey’s recent moves to strengthen ties with China might present challenges in balancing its relations with the US.

North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong Un: During Trump’s first term, Kim and Trump developed a cordial relationship, marked by letters and two summit meetings, although no deal was made to halt North Korea’s nuclear missile program.

Since then, Kim has rejected US attempts at dialogue and instead strengthened ties with Putin, while expanding North Korea’s weapons arsenal. With Trump back in office, Kim may hope to reduce the American military presence in the region and weaken the growing military cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea. During Trump’s first term, the US reduced joint military exercises with South Korea as a gesture of goodwill.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban: A five-term nationalist leader, Orban has been one of Trump’s staunchest European allies, praising him even when his return to power seemed uncertain due to ongoing criminal cases in the US.

Now, Orban is positioning himself as Trump’s representative in Europe, hoping that his strong personal ties with the incoming US president will improve his standing within the EU. Orban has faced criticism for his autocratic tendencies and pro-Russian stance. He expects Trump to swiftly end Russia’s war in Ukraine and reduce US pressure on Hungary regarding its democratic backsliding.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei: The president took a big gamble on Trump’s victory and emerged successful. During their first meeting in February, Milei praised Trump as “a very great president” and expressed hopes for his reelection.

Milei now looks to a second Trump term to help Argentina secure a better deal at the International Monetary Fund, particularly as the country seeks to replace its current $44 billion program. The Argentine leader has also been strengthening ties with Elon Musk, meeting with him multiple times this year, as the billionaire explores investment opportunities in Argentina.

Possible losers: Who might dislike Trump’s return

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky: Though Zelensky was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, there is growing concern in Kyiv over the Republican’s victory. Ukraine fears Trump may push for land concessions in peace talks with Russia and reduce financial and military support.

This shift in US leadership comes as Russia continues to advance in its campaign to gain more Ukrainian territory in the four regions it has annexed. While Biden had been cautious in backing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and limiting strikes into Russian territory, Trump’s promise to end the war in “24 hours” indicates his priority to resolve the crisis quickly.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian: Iran has so far downplayed the impact of Trump’s return, but his presidency closes the door to diplomacy on its nuclear program, which Tehran had hoped could ease its sanctions-stricken economy.

A strong supporter of Israel, Trump applied a “maximum pressure” policy towards Iran during his first term. He may further isolate Iran by tightening the US sanctions he previously imposed. However, Trump will face a changed region, as Iran has recently strengthened ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which had backed the “maximum pressure” approach.

China’s President Xi Jinping: Trump’s victory comes at a difficult time for Xi. The threat of a 60 percent blanket tariff on Chinese goods could devastate trade with the US, harming China’s economy. This adds to the uncertainty as Xi’s government rolls out a major stimulus to boost growth and confidence. However, there are some positives. Elon Musk, who has strong business ties with China, is said to have Trump’s attention. Additionally, Trump has questioned the US’s commitment to defending Taiwan, which could align with China’s interests.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Trump’s victory adds new pressure on Japan’s leader, especially after the ruling coalition lost its majority in a recent election. Trump has often criticised Japan’s trade surplus with the US and urged Japan to pay more for the US military presence of around 55,000 troops. Japan previously resisted such demands, but the current agreement is set to expire in 2026. Additionally, Japan may face pressure over its exports of chip-making equipment to China, which the US seeks to limit.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum: Mexico is bracing to find out how Trump will carry out his tariffs plan, which could be an obstacle to its goal to increase exports to its northern neighbor through nearshoring, Another source of anxiety is an expected 2026 review of the free trade agreement between North American nations. Immigration is also a hot-button issue, with Trump threatening to put financial pressure on Mexico despite its crackdown that helped the US reduce border migration ahead of the election..

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer: Few of America’s traditional Western allies are starting from a more difficult place with Trump than the Labour leader. Barely four months on the job, Starmer has already had ugly dust-up with Trump, after the Republican campaign accused his left-leaning party of sending volunteers to campaign for Democrat candidate Kamala Harris.

Starmer called the storming of the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a “direct attack on democracy” and his foreign secretary, David Lammy, in 2017 called then US president a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath.” More recently, he got into a public feud with Musk, after the billionaire industrial mused on Twitter that far right riots in the UK would lead to civil war.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron: He already has experience working with Trump, giving him valuable experience compared to his European peers. Indeed, during Trump’s first term the two leaders projected a showy alliance, including with a dinner atop the Eiffel tower. “Ready to work together as we did for four years,” Macron posted on X.

Trump’s return could also give added impetus for Macron’s trademark push to bolster the EU through deeper integration between its economies. Despite the optics and the possibility for greater European leverage, there’s little economically to be gained for France and potentially a lot to lose if trade tensions reignite. That could happen quickly if Trump reprises a battle with France over taxing large tech firms like Google.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: Trump’s ally in Brazil is former President Jair Bolsonaro, Lula’s main political rival. Lula worries that Trump’s return may embolden the conservative political movement led by Bolsonaro, whose supporters attempted an insurrection against his government just one week after his inauguration last year.

On the eve of the US election, Lula said he was praying for Harris’s victory, adding that Trump had encouraged antidemocratic riots on the Capitol after losing reelection in 2021.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz: Trump’s loathing of Angela Merkel put a huge strain on US-German ties and Scholz was her finance minister and successor so it will be hard for him to shake off that connection. Germany has been on the receiving end of Trump’s decades-long fixation with its cars and trade surplus and will find itself in the firing line yet again. Germany’s automotive sector is the biggest industry in Europe’s largest economy and is highly exposed to the steep US import tariffs Trump plans to impose.

With Bloomberg inputs