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Expected Growth of U.S. LNG Exports to Support Nearly 500,000 Jobs Annually and Add $1.3 Trillion to United States Gross Domestic Product Through 2040, New S&P Global Study Finds

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Expected Growth of U.S. LNG Exports to Support Nearly 500,000 Jobs Annually and Add .3 Trillion to United States Gross Domestic Product Through 2040, New S&P Global Study Finds

Impact on U.S. domestic natural gas prices—among the lowest in the world—would remain negligible

WASHINGTON, Dec. 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — On their current trajectory, growing exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) would support nearly half a million domestic jobs annually and contribute $1.3 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product through 2040 while having a negligible impact on domestic gas prices, according to a new comprehensive study by S&P Global.

S&P Global logo (PRNewsfoto/S&P Global)

The study projects U.S. LNG export capacity to double over the next five years under a Base Case that takes into account current conditions, including impacts from the 2024 pause of pending decisions on exports of LNG to non-free trade agreement countries. In addition to the projected sizeable jobs and GDP gains, future export activity is anticipated to generate more than $2.5 trillion in total revenues for U.S. businesses, $166 billion in federal and state tax revenues and more than $500 billion in labor income.

“The emergence of the U.S. LNG industry has placed the United States in the pole position with global demand for gas expected to grow through 2040 alongside the rapid growth of renewables,” said Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global. “Continued growth in U.S. LNG capacity would have outsized impact in terms of jobs, GDP and labor income. In addition to domestic economic benefits, being the world’s leading LNG supplier adds a new dimension to U.S. influence abroad. It was U.S. LNG that replaced nearly half of Russia gas supply to Europe after the outbreak of war in Ukraine.”

The study, Major New U.S. Industry at a Crossroads: A U.S. LNG Impact Study leverages the combined expertise of the S&P Global Commodity Insights and S&P Global Market Intelligence divisions to provide a comprehensive and forward-looking assessment of the projected impacts of LNG exports on the U.S. economy. It compares Base Case findings—utilizing S&P Global’s proprietary “Inflections” scenario—to those under an Extended Halt Scenario where no new or currently paused U.S. LNG capacity comes online.

The study is the first in a two-part series. A future companion study will conduct a global greenhouse gas emissions impact analysis (including methane) to quantify expected emissions under the two study scenarios and will expand the economic analysis to include regional and supply chain impacts.

LNG has emerged as a major U.S. industry in less than a decade and made the United States the world’s leading supplier. Exports of LNG already support more than 270,000 U.S. jobs annually and have generated more than $400 Billion in GDP and more than $800 billion in total revenues for domestic businesses since exports began in 2016. Export revenues from U.S. LNG already exceed those of U.S. soybeans, are twice that of the nation’s movie and television exports and half those of U.S semiconductors.

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