Experts react to 2024 election results

Despite the expectation that the results of the 2024 presidential election might not be known for a while, former president Donald Trump won enough swing states to reclaim the presidency by Wednesday morning. Republicans also won the Senate, though close races that will decide the House of Representatives may well not be called for days.

Virginia Tech political experts Cayce Myers and Farida Jalalzai offer their reactions to the results and what they mean more broadly for the next few years.

What aspect of the election results comes as the biggest surprise?

For Myers, there were three major surprises on election night: the speed with which the race was called, the margins, and the down-ballot impact. “It was expected that this election would not be called for days,” says Myers. “Instead we knew the winner the next morning because Trump outperformed expectations in all swing states.”

Trump also appeared poised to sweep the battleground states and potentially even win the popular vote, something a Republican has done once since 1988. That could well impact House and Senate races. “With a Republican majority in the Senate and potentially in the House, his agenda will be easier to achieve,” says Myers.

What conventional wisdom was confirmed or shifted from past elections?

Trump’s election also continues an unbroken streak since the nation’s founding of men ascending to the Oval Office. Vice President Kamala Harris was just the second female major party presidential candidate, but will not break the highest glass ceiling.

“The United States’ omission from the list of women-led countries continues,” says Jalalzai. “Harris’s loss demonstrates the difficulty women face being elected to presidential positions affording substantial powers and demonstrates the complex role gender plays in American presidential politics.”

While the entire campaign was incredibly unconventional, with Harris replacing President Joe Biden as the candidate over the summer, the polls pointed to a close outcome — something that Myers says both did and didn’t come to fruition.

“Conventional wisdom was this election would be close, and on the whole, it was in many states,” he says. “However, what happened in 2024 was Trump solidified his base and outperformed his margins with key groups.”

How much different will the next two years look, depending on whether Democrats flip the House of Representatives?

With both the presidency and the Senate decided, all eyes now turn to the House. Some pivotal races may take several days to call. Outcomes of those could determine whether the GOP has full control of Congress, which will dramatically impact lawmaking.

“The majority party, even if slim, has control over the agenda and chairs of House committees,” says Myers. “For Trump to achieve his agenda he needs the House to have a Republican majority. However, if Democrats control the House it will be a firewall against his initiatives and may result in impeachment inquiries and investigations.”

About Myers
Cayce Myers is a professor of public relations and director of graduate studies at the School of Communication at Virginia Tech. His work focuses on media history, political communication, and laws that affect public relations practice. He is the author of “Public Relations History: Theory Practice” and “Profession and Money in Politics: Campaign Fundraising in the 2020 Presidential Election.” Read more here.

About Jalalzai
Farida Jalalzai is associate dean for global initiatives and engagement in the College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences and professor of political science at Virginia Tech, focusing on the role of gender in the political arena including women national leaders. She is the author of several books on global women’s rights. Read more here.

Schedule an interview
To schedule an interview with Cayce Myers or Farida Jalalzai, contact Noah Frank in the media relations office at nafrank@vt.edu or 805-453-2556.