Gold inches lower as US jobs data cements bets for smaller rate cut

(Reuters) – Gold prices eased on Monday as bets firmed for a smaller U.S. rate cut in November after a surprisingly strong jobs report, while market participants awaited inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for further cues.

Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $2,647.43 per ounce by 0211 GMT. U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $2,666.80.

The stronger-than-expected September jobs report, released on Friday, poured cold water on expectations of a large Fed rate cut next month, boosting the dollar. [USD/]

Traders now see a 93.4% probability that the Fed will cut rates by only a quarter of a percentage point in November, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. They have scaled back expectations for a 50 basis-point cut to 0% from 28%.

“Geopolitical risks in the Middle East could support safe-haven flows for the yellow metal, which limit the downside from a less-dovish market rate pricing,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said, adding that gold would remain supported with U.S. election uncertainties ahead.

Bullion tends to be a preferred investment in a low interest rate environment and during political and economic uncertainties.

This week, market participants will focus on minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. A slew of U.S. central bank officials are also speaking this week.

In the Middle East, Israel bombed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip on Sunday ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks that sparked its war, as Israel’s defence minister declared all options were open for retaliation against arch-enemy Iran.

Elsewhere, China’s gold holdings stood at 72.8 million fine troy ounces at the end of September, for a fifth straight month, data showed.

Spot silver was flat at $32.17 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.5% to $989.36 and palladium rose 1% to $1,022.20.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

By Ashitha Shivaprasad