Historian Allan Lichtman forecasts Kamala Harris’ win in US elections

The system has a total of 13 keys. The political scientist says if 6 of the 13 keys count against the incumbent White House party, it is predicted to lose, and fewer than that, they are predicted to win.

In an interview with ANI, Lichtman says that there are only four keys that work against the incumbent Democrats, which means that Donald Trump will not be returning to the White House.

“The White House party (Democrats) loses key 1, the mandate key, because they lost US House seats in 2022. They lost key number 3, the incumbency key, because the sitting president’s not running. They lose key number 12, the incumbent charisma key, because what you may think of Harris, she’s only been a candidate for a little while. She’s not reached the status of a Franklin Roosevelt. And she loses key number 11, the foreign policy failure key, because the Middle East is a disaster, a humanitarian crisis with no good end in sight,” the historian said.

“That’s four keys down, two keys short of what would be needed to predict Donald Trump returning to the White House and Harris losing. So the keys predict we’re going to have a new pathbreaking president, our first woman president, and the first president of mixed Asian and African descent, kind of foreshadowing where America is going. We’re rapidly becoming a majority-minority country. Old white guys like me are on the decline,” he said.

Speaking on the factors that work in Democrats’ favour, Lichtman said there has been no recession in the election year, the third-party campaign has fizzled and Republicans have been unsuccessful in putting up a scandal against the Democrats.

“Well, as I said, they’re only losing four. That means they’re winning nine keys. The contest key, because the Democrats united around Harris. The third-party key, because the campaign of RFK Jr. has fizzled. The short-term economic key, because there’s no recession in the election year. The long-term economic key, because real per capita growth under the Biden term has vastly exceeded the average of the previous two terms. They win the policy change key, because policies under Biden are fundamentally different from those under Trump. They win the social unrest key, because the earlier sporadic demonstrations have fizzled away. They win the scandal key. Republicans have been trying for four years to pit a scandal on Biden and have come up empty,” Lichtman said.

“They win the foreign policy success key, because it was Biden and Biden alone who put together the coalition of the West that stopped Putin from conquering Ukraine, as many predicted, and moving on to threatening America’s Nato allies and undermining America’s national security. They win the challenger charisma key, because whatever you may think of Trump as a showman, he doesn’t fit the definition of the key, which is a once-in-a-generation, across-the-board, inspirational candidate. He only appeals to a narrow base. In four years as president, his approval rating was just 41 per cent, right at the bottom, historically, of presidents. And in two consecutive elections, he lost the vote of the people by a combined 10 million votes. So that’s why there are nine keys in favour of the Democrats,” he further said.

Vice President Kamala Harris, is the first woman, first Black, and first Asian American Vice President. If elected president, the 59-year-old would become the first woman in history to become the US president.

She is up against former President Donald Trump, who is eyeing a historic return to the White House after a bitter exit in 2020. If he wins, it would be the first time in over 100 years in US history, that a President would serve two non-consecutive presidential terms.

The US presidential polls are scheduled to be held on November 5.

Asked about whether there can be different winners among Democrats and Republicans in terms of electoral college and popular votes, Lichtman said he hasn’t made any prediction on that aspect.

He also emphasized that the keys don’t change in the swing states — which essentially decide the US election results — and stood with his prediction of Harris win.

The political scientist also termed the October surprise — a major event that changes poll outcome ahead of the November poll — as the “biggest myth” in American history.

“The October surprise is the biggest myth in American history. I’ve predicted all my elections, 10 elections, this is my 11th, well before any October surprise. We had the biggest October surprise ever in 2016, when Donald Trump was recorded on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women. A lot of pundits were saying, he’s finished, he’s done. I never changed my prediction of a Trump win, which proved to be correct,” he said.

Speaking on the two candidates, he further said that Trump is an inward-looking leader who is against the collective security of America’s allies, while Harris is a ‘typical’ American president who believes in working with the allies. He also said that today America’s standing is “vastly better” than what it was under four years of the Trump administration.

“Trump is an America first president or candidate, either one. He believes in turning inward. He’s against collective security with our allies. Many times he’s trashed our Nato alliance and our Nato allies are very worried about a Trump presidency. Harris is your typical president who believes in collective security, who believes in working with our allies and not trying to go it alone,” Lichtman said.

“In fact, America’s standing around the world is vastly better in terms of how America’s perceived…the United States than it was during the Trump administration when he had basically trashed our allies,” he further added.

First Published: Oct 14 2024 | 9:42 AM IST