Jobs report highlights first full trading week of 2025: What to know this week

Bank of America’s Vivek Arya told Brian Sozzi on the Opening Bid podcast Thursday that broader market forces and company-specific issues drove the sell-off in Nvidia stock late last year. “What we have seen in the market is a rotation of money from semiconductors to software,” Arya said, noting that the latter was less exposed to US trade restrictions on goods to and from China.

He added that for Nvidia, “the last two quarters have not been clean, really, because they’re going through growing pains from one generation of product that was Hopper to the new generation of product.”

The historically best seven-day stretch of the year for the S&P 500 came and went without any gains. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 1.3% during the seven trading days beginning Dec. 24 amid the so-called Santa Claus rally.

But this year, the index fell about 0.5%. LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist wrote in a note to clients that when the S&P 500 has a negative return over this time period, it usually points to a weaker year for stocks.

Though, as we noted last week, last year didn’t feature a Santa Claus rally either, and the S&P 500 still rose roughly 24% in 2025.

“I don’t know how far the market falls from here,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief market strategist Callie Cox told Yahoo Finance. “I certainly don’t assign too much weight to seasonal patterns. Just because the market is falling during the Santa Claus rally period doesn’t mean that we’re doomed.”

One key catalyst could come with next week’s jobs report. As a recent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) near 4.6% has helped contribute to the sour sentiment around stocks, Piper Sandler chief markets strategist Michael Kantrowitz believes relief could be on the way.

“We think we need to see softer employment to get rates to start coming down,” Kantrowitz said in a video to clients on Friday.

Whether the soft data comes in the week ahead or later in the first quarter, Kantrowitz believes this narrative shift from the rising rate environment could help “get equities going once again.”

Monday

Economic data: S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, December final (58.3 expected, 58.5 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, December final (56.6 previously); Factory Orders, November (-0.3% expected, +0.2% prior); Durable Goods Orders, November final (-0.3% expected, -1.1% prior)

Earnings: No notable earnings releases.

Tuesday

Economic data: Job openings, November (7.7 million expected, 7.74 million previously); ISM Services Index, December (53.1 expected, 52.1 prior)

Earnings: Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Jan. 3; ADP Private Payrolls, December (+130,000 expected, +146,000 previously); FOMC December meeting minutes

Earnings: Albertsons (ACI), Helen of Troy (HELE), Jefferies (JEF)

Thursday

Economic data: Challenger jobs cuts, year-over-year, December (+26.8% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ending Jan. 4 (211,000 previously)

Earnings: KB Home (KBH)

Friday

Economic calendar: Nonfarm payrolls, December (+153,000 expected, +227,000 previously); Unemployment rate, December (4.2% expected, 4.3% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, December (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, December (+4% expected, +4% previously); Average weekly hours worked, December (34.3 expected, 34.3 previously); Labor force participation rate, December (62.5% previously)

Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ), Delta (DAL), Tilray (TLRY), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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