NFL picks, predictions against the spread Week 13: Bills top 49ers; Vikings, Seahawks, & Broncos stay hot | Sporting News

Thanksgiving week means two things for the 2024 NFL schedule. First, after six teams were on a bye, the Week 13 slate is back to a full 16 games until it drops down again next week.

Second, there’s a lot of great action to enjoy from a Thursday tripleheader to Monday night as the calendar also flips from November to December.

It’s been a rough couple of weeks with the picks and predictions against the spread, so it’s nice to have a few more shots at getting games right, even if it means there also are more chances of getting things wrong.

Let’s stay positive and optimistic and let the negativity and pessimism go while diving into another fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications.

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 13

Games of the Midweek

• Bears at Lions (-10.5, 48.5 o/u)

Thursday 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS

The Lions are a relentless team, and remember that they lost at home to the Packers last Thanksgiving. The Bears lost an overtime thriller to the Vikings at home and will be road-weary on a short week. Chicago’s defense has fallen apart for Matt Eberflus while Detroit’s defense keeps on flexing for Aaron Glenn. The home team says “no thanks’ and shows no mercy on the holiday.

Pick: Lions win 34-13 and cover the spread.

MORE BEARS: Jonathan Owens pays tribute to Simone Biles with celebration | Bears fans boo injured chain-gang member

• Giants at Cowboys (-4, 38 o/u)

Thursday 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox

The Giants are a mess and struggled to move the ball without Daniel Jones with Brian Daboll on a scorching seat. The Cowboys pulled off a major division upset vs. the Commanders on the road. That would say Dallas rips New York on a short week, but it’s a decent matchup for the Giants because the Cowboys can’t exploit their key defensive weaknesses as much. In the end, home field and a more seasoned backup QB lets the home team win on a Brandon Aubrey field goal.

Pick: Cowboys win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE COWBOYS: Cowboys playoff outlook after win vs. Commanders | Highlights from Commanders-Cowboys wild ending

MORE GIANTS: Is Brian Daboll on hot seat ahead of Cowboys game?

• Dolphins at Packers (-3, 47.5 o/u)

Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

Tua Tagovailoa has the new-look Miami offense rolling with efficient, short-to-intermediate passing playing off the run. The Dolphins have taken full advantage of bad defenses in favorable weather, but going to Lambeau against a dangerous defense is a different story. The compressed passing game becomes more exploitable by a Packers team that can rev up pressure to force Tua turnovers.

Pick: Packers win 24-20 and cover the spread.

MORE: Dolphins’ playoff outlook after win vs. Patriots

• Lock of the Week: Raiders at Chiefs (-13, 42.5 o/u)

Friday 3 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video

The Chiefs are the reverse Lions in the AFC. They aren’t taking care of big numbers as favorites to Patrick Mahomes’ liking. That message should be received by his teammates against the rival Raiders, who can’t keep quarterbacks healthy and have a shell of a pass defense facing a red-hot Mahomes. That’s called the Silver and Black Friday deal

Pick: Chiefs win 34-10 and cover the spread.

MORE NFL:

• Game of the Week: Eagles at Ravens (-2.5, 50.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Eagles have a dangerous downfield passing game with Jalen Hurts and have a red-hot running back, Saquon Barkley. As great as Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have been together, Hurts and Barkley are surging as a dynamic duo at the right time. Both teams stop the run rather well, so it will come down to the best matchups for receivers. Philadelphia has the clear edge there in this short road trip.

Pick: Eagles win 27-24.

MORE: Saquon Barkley runs into MVP conversation

• Upset of the Week: Patriots (+2.5, 42.5 o/u) over Colts

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Patriots can become more competitive here as they face an inconsistent offense at home. They will be able to run the ball well and get Drake Maye comfortable in the intermediate passing game at home. Jonathan Taylor’s running gets a little better, but the Patriots outrush the Colts to win with help from Maye.

Pick: Patriots win 23-20 and cover the spread.

WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers

• Chargers at Falcons (+1, 48 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Chargers are a strong team against average and lesser opponents. Justin Herbert comes in sizzling and will be game for a duel with Kirk Cousins. Los Angeles will stop the run well, making Atlanta more one-dimensional, while Herbert can pick apart the Falcons’ secondary with big plays downfield.

Pick: Chargers win 27-24.

• Steelers at Bengals (-2.5, 47 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Steelers need to run to do well with the Russell Wilson downfield passing game, and the Bengals have shored up that issue from much earlier in the season. The Bengals, coming off a bye, know they can still control their playoff fate at 4-7. They should exploit the key holes in Pittsburgh’s defense with Joe Burrow staying hot.

Pick: Bengals win 21-17 and cover the spread.

MORE: George Pickens blasts Browns after loss | Best pictures from Steelers-Browns snow game

• Cardinals at Vikings (-3.5, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Cardinals are much better at running the ball and playing defense at home for Jonathan Gannon. The Vikings have become red-hot offensively again, and they will be ready to go after Kyler Murray in what becomes a one-dimensional attack. Minnesota gets the key sacks and turnovers to win comfortably again.

Pick: Vikings win 21-13 and cover the spread.

MORE: NFC West standings after Cardinals loss to Seahawks

• Seahawks (-2.5, 41.5 o/u) at Jets 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Seahawks are feeling it as NFC West leaders again thanks to Geno Smith and the defense. Geno returning to New York should be a special moment for him, a reminder of how far he’s come as a once-written-off starting QB. That motivation leads to a fine performance to outduel a fading Aaron Rodgers.

Pick: Seahawks win 23-20 and cover the spread.

MORE SEAHAWKS: NFC West standings after Seahawks beat Cardinals

MORE JETS: Is Aaron Rodgers dodging medical testing to avoid missing time?

• Titans at Commanders (-5.5, 44.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Commanders couldn’t lose a fourth straight game, could they? They have gotten through the meat of their schedule, and this sets up the ideal end to the skid at home. The Titans can’t and won’t be taken lightly, as Jayden Daniels and the defense need to finish the job for a much-needed win to stop the side out of a wild-card spot.

Pick: Commanders win 27-20 and cover the spread.

MORE: Commanders playoff outlook | Brian Robinson Jr. injury update | Austin Ekeler injury update

• Texans (-5, 43 o/u) at Jaguars 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Texans will try to avoid fading like the Falcons and Commanders after being upset by the Titans. This division game is more favorable for C.J. Stroud and Joe Mixon against a much weaker defense on the road. The Texans will thwart a game Trevor Lawrence, who has fewer healthy and reliable weapons than Stroud.

Pick: Texans win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: C.J. Stroud pulls a ‘Dan Orlovsky’ on game-sealing safety vs. Titans

• Rams (-2.5, 48 o/u) at Saints

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

The Rams are a tough draw for the Saints, as some of the latter’s initial momentum under interim coach Darren Rizzi has been cooled. They can’t really slow down the power running game anymore, and Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will cause a ton of secondary problems.

Pick: Rams win 24-20 and cover the spread.

MORE: Nick Sirianni’s late penalty decision vs. Rams creates controversy

• Buccaneers (-6, 46.5 o/u) at Panthers 

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

Once again, the NFC South is getting tighter with all four teams, including the Falcons, looking like little separates them. The Panthers have gotten an offensive spark from Bryce Young growing quickly in Dave Canales’ system. Canales’ knowledge of the Bucs keeps it interesting, as Carolina once again comes through vs. the number at home.

Pick: Buccaneers win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE BUCCANEERS: Baker Mayfield pays ‘tribute’ to Tommy DeVito with TD celebration vs. Giants

MORE PANTHERS: Ja’Tavion Sanders injury update after scary fall

• 49ers at Bills (-7, 46 o/u)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

The 49ers are repeating the 2020 season after another loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Injuries have become a major issue, with no area of the team — offense, defense, or special teams — immune to key players going down at tough times. The Bills will have little empathy as they are trying to chase down the Chiefs themselves. Coming off a bye, Josh Allen can keep smashing as the Bills’ defense takes care of the rest vs. a shorthanded, road-weary offense that will have little work beyond Christian McCaffrey in the passing game.

Pick: Bills win 30-14 and cover the spread.

MORE: How loss to Packers impacts 49ers’ playoff outlook

• Browns at Broncos (-5.5, 42 o/u)

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Denver has been smashing at home of late with Bo Nix and the offense spreading the ball around well. The Broncos won’t run well on the Browns, but they will find some big downfield passing matchups in their favor. On the flip side, Jameis Winston will see good pressure and tough coverage from the team led by his former Saints coach, Sean Payton.

Pick: Broncos win 24-17 and cover the spread.

MORE: Jameis Winston caps memorable night with snowball fight | Myles Garrett declares himself ‘No. 1’ defensive player

Stats of the Week

• Week 12 record straight up: 9-4
• Week 12 record against the spread: 5-8
• Season-to-date straight up: 118-62
• Season-to-date against the spread: 86-89