Online Holiday Spending Projected to Rise 8.4%, Most Since 2021

Steep discounts and easing inflation will compel US shoppers to spend $240.8 billion online in November and December, up 8.4 percent from last year’s holiday shopping season and the biggest increase since 2021, according to Adobe Inc.

The forecast signals a continued shift from physical stores to websites and mobile apps, a trend expected to benefit e-commerce leader Amazon.com Inc. as well as traditional chains like Walmart Inc. that have increased their digital offerings.

Inflation-battered shoppers have been trading down to lower-cost options in most shopping categories. During the holidays, however, discounts of as much as 30 percent will encourage them to trade up on electronics, appliances and sporting goods, according to Adobe.

The big discounts reflect the growing options US shoppers have online, including China-linked startups like Temu, Shein and TikTok that are putting pressure on more established US retailers.

“When domestic and offshore retailers all compete for the same consumer dollars, that’s good for prices,” Adobe analyst Vivek Pandya said. “That’s where we see the impact of an online ecosystem that continues to grow and has more players in it.”

Adobe also said consumers are starting to use ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence tools to help them shop, bypassing Google and Amazon, which can be cluttered with ads. One in five shoppers use AI to find the best deals, according to Adobe.

While the firm is projecting strong online spending this holiday, US shoppers remain cautious. Consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September by the most in three years, amid concerns about jobs and the economy. Deloitte LLP predicted this month that total holiday spending, including physical stores, would increase by as much as 3.3 percent, a decrease from last year’s 4.3 percent growth.

By Spencer Soper

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