EV sales are expected to keep growing every year globally as more car makers produce a fleet of hybrid or fully electric vehicles, but you wouldn’t guess that by looking at stock prices.
In a year when the Nasdaq has risen more than 15%, EV stocks have had a tough time as many subsidies have been removed and interest rates have slowed demand.
Just in the last year, we have seen investors lose some patience, with Amazon-backed Rivian down 43% and Swedish Polestar down 70%.
Boutique maker Faraday is down 99%, Lucid Motors is down 39%, and China’s Nio has slid 64%, raising questions about whether there’s any way back up for these companies.
These numbers offer a staggering glimpse at the scale of the money squeezed out of a sector that has been buoyed by the promise of rapid growth.
Investors time and again over-hype themes in the market with similar price movements seen in the 2021 legalise cannabis sector boom in the United Sates and Canada.
Local retail investors who poured money into some of these hype stocks will almost certainly be staring at some losses in the current market and hoping for a recovery in the sector.
Tesla, the poster child of electric cool, is still dominant and boasts a huge US$670 billion market cap, producing 11% of global sales but its shares fell 14% in the last year and were flat over two years.
That’s despite the Tesla Y Model becoming the first electric vehicle to top global new car sales in 2023. Constant price cuts to spur more demand meant growth rates fell and the company was also contending with increased competition out of China.
China’s BYD, which dominates the Chinese market, has fared far better than competitors and leads the global market with 21% of global EV sales. That market is well positioned with four of the top five electric car manufacturers by revenue trailing just Tesla.
In 2023, one in five new cars sold in New Zealand was an electric vehicle but the latest data shows pure EVs make up only around 5% of new car sales. More promisingly, in 2023 fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars hit 27% market share according to EV Database.
Australia fares slightly better at around 8%, but no matter where you look you’re given a stark reminder that the EV market growth rates might have been artificially propped up with purchase and fuel subsidy incentives from numerous governments.
Much of this decline is being attributed to a drop in subsidies, slow growth in sales and high borrowing costs. The cost-of-living crisis has also meant an increase in demand for second-hand vehicles, of which the EVs make up a very small contingent.
On top of this, you have budget-conscious consumers anxious about the distance EVs can travel – not helped by a lack of charging stations – and the cost of replacing batteries in the event of degradation.
These factors are now being reflected in automakers pushing back EV targets, and diverting funds to more affordable hybrid vehicles rather than pure electric models.
Policies on issues including energy and trade are likely to garner much attention from EV manufacturers and investors in the upcoming contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Graphic / Getty Images, 123RF, NZME montage
Ford, Mercedes Benz, and Bentley are just some of the manufacturers that have drastically changed their EV plans.
After announcing plans for an all-electric line-up of SUVs, Ford backtracked and replaced them with hybrid models – a strategic shift that will cost the company upwards of US$1.5b ($2.4b).
The company also said only 30% of its annual capital expenditure will be spent on electric vehicles, down significantly from the 40% previously indicated.
By focusing on hybrid tech, companies like Ford want to meet customers where they are now rather than where they might be in the future.
All evidence suggests EVs will dominate the industry eventually, but getting there will take longer than everyone expected at first – and the players who were hyped before might not hang around long enough to enjoy those future benefits.
Much of this will also depend on policies governments roll out around the world. Locally, we’ve seen EV adoption hit hard off the back of the removal of government subsidies like the Clean Car discount, but our small consumer base isn’t quite enough to move international markets.
EV manufacturers and investors will be watching the upcoming US Election debate closely. There are very few topics on which Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump differ more markedly than policies to do with energy.
Until now, both candidates have been cautious in terms of releasing definitive policy positions but the upcoming debates – especially the first one on Wednesday NZT – will present a preview of what the US could look like under Harris or Trump.
Harris has so far suggested she will keep pushing the green energy agenda, which involved massive investment from President Joe Biden off the back of the Covid pandemic.
The corporate world has also responded by investing significantly in green energy, but at least some of this could be lost if the Republicans took power.
Trump on the other hand indicated he would roll back environmental regulation and boost oil and gas drilling to extract maximum value from these fossil fuels. That does not bode well for EV companies – and does cast a slightly different light on why Tesla founder Elon Musk has cosied up to Trump in recent months.
That said, Trump has also upped his rhetoric against China, which could work in Tesla’s favour should we see a return of trade-war tensions between Beijing and Washington.
While it did look likely for a while that Trump would easily win the next election, the rapid rise of Harris has upped the uncertainty. And the stock market – especially among companies caught in the policy divide – could be facing some volatility in coming months.
For those EV stocks hammered over the last year-and-a-half, the rough ride looks far from over. Competition among the top EV brands is expected to intensify in the rest of 2024 and that’s good for consumers.
The stock prices quoted in this article were valid as at Friday, September 6.
