State-Level Data Shows Weak US Jobs Report Extended Beyond Hurricane Beryl

(Bloomberg) — Unemployment rose in more than half of US states last month, suggesting the weakness seen in the national jobs report that spooked markets extended beyond Hurricane Beryl.

The unemployment rate in Texas — where the storm hit in early July — edged up just 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, below the nationwide average, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. Meantime, 27 other US states plus Washington, DC also saw their rates increase, with 10 rising at least 0.2 percentage point.

The figures offer insight into Beryl’s impact on the July jobs report, which was released two weeks ago and helped spark a global market selloff. While some economists contended that the storm played a role in one of the weakest paces of hiring since the pandemic and the highest unemployment rate in three years, the BLS at the time said it had “no discernible effect” on the figures.

The BLS flagged 13 states that had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in July from the prior month. Texas was not one of them.

Payrolls data at state level also indicate that Beryl’s impact was probably modest. Texas saw a 14,500 decline in July, but that was after a 9,100 drop in June — before the hurricane. 

The state of the economy is the number one concern for voters, and the presidential campaigns are concentrating their efforts in the swing states that will decide the 2024 election. 

Michigan’s unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage point from the prior month to 4.4% in July, the highest since 2022. Nevada’s jobless rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 5.4%, among the highest in the nation. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin all saw minor increases, while Pennsylvania’s rate was unchanged.

The jobless rate also rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.2% in Minnesota, home to Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate — Tim Walz.

–With assistance from Vince Golle.

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