(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest technology companies lifted stocks at the start of the first full trading week in 2025. The dollar trimmed losses after President-elect Donald Trump said his tariff policy plan won’t be pared back.
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Almost every major group in the S&P 500 advanced, with Nvidia Corp. leading gains in megacaps ahead of Monday’s speech from chief Jensen Huang. The yield on US 30-year bonds hit the highest since late 2023 as the Treasury market prepares for $119 billion of debt issuance this week. A Bloomberg gauge of the greenback pared a slide of as much as 1% as Trump denied a Washington Post report that he would consider applying a tariff to all countries but be limited to specific critical imports.
“2025 should see a volatile market,” said Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. “The large swings may provide opportunities for both buyers and sellers in 2025.”
Wall Street traders are also gearing up for Friday’s key jobs report, which is expected to show US employers tempered their hiring last month to wrap up a year of moderating yet still-healthy labor market. The report is unlikely to alter the view of Federal Reserve officials that they can slow the pace of rate cuts amid a durable economy and inflation that’s dissipating only gradually.
The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to around 6,000. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%. A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps” climbed 1.5%. The Russell 2000 index of smaller firms advanced 0.9%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.63%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%. The loonie rose as much as 1.2% on news reports that Justin Trudeau will announce he plans to resign as leader of Canada’s Liberal Party.
A rally in US stocks this year will be driven mainly by corporate earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin, who expect the S&P 500 to hit 6,500 points by end-2025.
US equities could face a tough six months ahead, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
The correlation between the S&P 500 and bond yields has turned “decisively negative” as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.5%, they noted.
“We think 2025 could be a year of two halves,” the strategists wrote, with market-friendly policies such as potential tax cuts likely to shore up stocks later in the year. The team in November issued a 12-month target of 6,500 points for the S&P 500.
Investor exuberance in the stock market is starting to “self-correct” as a measure of sentiment and positioning fell into the year end, according to RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“While this doesn’t tell us that the recent period of malaise in the stock market is over, we do think this deterioration in sentiment is actually good news for the stock market longer term,” they wrote.
Corporate Highlights:
American Airlines Group Inc. was upgraded to buy from hold at TD Cowen, Jefferies and Melius.
Citigroup Inc. was upgraded at Barclays Plc to overweight, as the broker took a constructive view on bank stocks for 2025 as earnings per share growth accelerates and price-to-equity multiples expand.
Uber Technologies Inc. said it entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement with Bank of America to repurchase $1.5 billion of shares of Uber common stock, as part of its previously announced share repurchase authorization.
Walt Disney Co. and streaming provider FuboTV Inc., are nearing a deal to combine their online live TV businesses, according to people familiar with the matter.
Paychex Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire Paycor HCM Inc., a smaller rival in payroll processing, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Nippon Steel Corp. and United States Steel Corp. jointly filed lawsuits in a last-ditch effort to preserve the planned merger of the companies, which was blocked last week by President Joe Biden.
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported faster-than-expected 15% revenue growth after the server assembly partner to Nvidia Corp. rode sustained demand for AI infrastructure.
Key events this week:
Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Tuesday
US job openings, trade, ISM services, Tuesday
Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Tuesday
Eurozone PPI, consumer confidence, Wednesday
US ADP employment, Fed minutes, consumer credit, Wednesday
Fed’s Christopher Waller speaks, Wednesday
China CPI, PPI, Thursday
Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
US state funeral and national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter is a federal holiday, Thursday
Fed’s Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin, Jeff Schmid speak and Michelle Bowman, Thursday
Japan household spending, leading index, Friday
US jobs report, consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 10:10 a.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%
The MSCI World Index rose 1.1%
Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.9%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0385
The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.2507
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 157.47 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $101,070.9
Ether rose 1.4% to $3,696.3
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.63%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.46%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $74.97 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,632.17 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Allegra Catelli, Julien Ponthus and Catherine Bosley.