Texans’ QB CJ Stroud’s sophomore slump is real and concerning | Sporting News

Houston Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud is in the middle of a sophomore slump, but some have argued that it’s mainly due to their poor offensive line play and other injuries to their WR room.  Nico Collins has had to miss a chunk of games this year, and Stefon Diggs has been out for a while now with his torn ACL.

Well, what do the advanced statistics say?  In 2023, Stroud’s rookie season, the Texans had a dropback EPA of .063.  The highest figure in the NFL in 2023 belonged to the San Francisco 49ers at a .298. 

In 2024, their dropback EPA is down to .037.  Stroud is currently 24th in EPA per play, and was 6th at this point during the 2023 NFL Season.  Further, his passer rating is down over 13 points, and he’s on pace to be sacked 55 times this year across a full 17-game season.

In 2023, he was sacked just 38 times in 15 games.  His completion percentage is down .8%, and his yards per game is down over 30 yards.  Stroud’s touchdown rate has gone down, his interception rate has gone up, and his yards per attempt is also down.  Typically, the elite QBs in the NFL today made a noticeable leap in year two.

This is true for guys like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and many others, but it’s not been true for C.J. Stroud.  You just have to wonder if there are only so many excuses that we can give to the young QB before accepting that the sophomore slump is real, and it’s more because of Stroud himself and not the circumstances around him.