The S&P 6,000 calls are starting to feel reasonable: Morning Brief

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The bulls continue to run loose on Wall Street.

The S&P 500’s (^GSPC) 40th record close of the year on Monday now puts the index less than 5% from 6,000.

And with the Federal Reserve’s anticipated string of interest rate cuts on the horizon, some analysts expect to see that big 6,000 milestone soon.

“Now that the Fed is officially in easing mode, even as the US economy continues to grow nicely, the proverbial path of least resistance for stocks is likely to higher levels,” DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

Colas admitted that 6,000 would be a “peak confidence” price target. But he’s not the only person publishing research that’s feeling bullish. Last Thursday, BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski boosted his year-end target to 6,100 from 5,600, the most bullish call among the equity strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance.

“Much like our last target increase in May, we continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted,” Belski wrote.

Perhaps the most striking part of Belski’s increase was that it didn’t come with a boost to his projection for earnings this year. Per Belski’s math, if the S&P 500 were trading at 6,100 by the end of this year, it’d be sitting at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4x, well above the 10-year average of roughly 18x.

Belski recognized this “may seem elevated relative to historical norms.” But looking at the closest historical analog is often more compelling than averages — which puts 1995’s soft landing in focus.

“[That was] a period where the index was able to sustain a greater-than-20x multiple for several years,” Belski noted.

On the other hand, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina isn’t moving her target of 5,700 just yet.

Calvasina admitted there are “upside risks” to that forecast should the economy hold up. But the strategist did caution in a weekly Sunday evening note to clients that the good times often come with hiccups. An election is coming, and the net bullish reading from the American Association of Individual Investors is high enough to read “flirting with danger.”

Story continues

These have been the kind of bullish indicators that have peaked before recent drawdowns. But some things look a bit different this time. Strategists aren’t just talking about abundant artificial intelligence exuberance when calling for the S&P to reach 6,000 as they were back in early 2024.

Earnings for the other 493 stocks not in the “Magnificent Seven” have been on the rise. The largest 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have fallen 0.5% from the start of July to Sept. 19, while the other 490 have risen 6.2%.

This, Belski noted, marks the best outperformance for the other 490 stocks in nearly two years. Add on the fact that 339 S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index since the start of the third quarter — the best stretch of outperformance in about 22 years, per Belski — and it feels like a bit-of-everything rally has been at play in the market.

“This is a trend we expect to continue and should help to support future market gains even if the price and fundamental performance of Mag-X stocks continues to decelerate in the months ahead,” Belski wrote.

With the Fed narrative seemingly out of the way for now, the start of third quarter earnings in a little over two weeks should serve as the first litmus test for the new-look bull market as investors await to see if the other stocks they’ve been bidding up can deliver against those rising expectations.

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