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Trump seemed indestructible, but a remarkable new dynamic has emerged in the race for the White House
Through all the turmoil at the top of US politics, a remarkable new dynamic has emerged: Kamala Harris can win in November.
The moment after Donald Trump was left bloodied by a would-be assassin’s bullet, the political reality changed dramatically.
Trump seemed indestructible. He showed himself as the ultimate political animal – most people would be in shock and fear after someone had tried to kill them, but not Trump. He realised it made for a great political moment, raising his fist and shouting “Fight, fight, fight!”
His rival for the presidency at that time was Joe Biden, a frail man who was becoming increasingly enfeebled.
Leading Democrats were in despair. They believed that short of something dramatic, Trump was heading back to the White House.
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Then it was the Democrats’ turn for a dramatic twist. Key Democrats, including Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, made clear that Biden was not a viable candidate.
Biden was fighting against that immovable reality – date of birth. DOB won.
The Democrats were tearing themselves apart as a man for whom they had great affection and respect could not bring himself to face the toughest of realities: he was too old for the job.
In the end, key Democrats’ fear of a Trump redux overpowered their affection for “Joe”.
A new race for Trump
For those few days between the assassination attempt and the Democrats’ subtle leadership coup, Donald Trump was riding high. So convinced did Trump appear to be of the inevitability of a victory that he discarded conventional political wisdom and chose a running mate who in no way broadened his appeal – JD Vance.
Forced from the campaign, Biden quickly pivoted to endorsing his loyal deputy, Vice-President Harris.
Suddenly, the race was not between two old men but between one old man — a convicted felon who almost had to be blasted from office in his previous presidential term — and a relatively young, smart professional woman at the height of her game.
Overnight, Harris appealed to the Democrats’ base, which re-united. Women — young women in particular — now can contemplate the possibility that they will see the first female president in US history.
Likewise, people from diverse backgrounds can, once again, contemplate the sentiments they had when they propelled Barack Obama into the White House, despite decades of predictions that the US would never elect a black president.
Early indications are that Harris has the ability to galvanise several key constituencies — women, young people, African Americans, minority groups and of course traditional Democrats. Certainly, serious money is now flowing into the Democrats’ campaign.
None of this is to say that Harris is any certainty. Harris has not yet felt the relentless brutality of the US media as it will attempt to interview anyone the vice-president has ever lived next to, worked with or offended.
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Harris changes Gaza stance
Harris has wasted no time differentiating herself from Biden. Within days she has taken a much tougher position on Israel’s war in Gaza.
While insisting she supports the US’ “unshakeable” alliance with Israel, in her recent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington she did not hold back in her criticism of Israel’s conduct of the war.
Declaring later that “I will not be silent” about the suffering of Palestinians, Harris said:
“What has happened in Gaza over the past nine months is devastating. The images of dead children and desperate hungry people fleeing for safety, sometimes displaced for the second, third or fourth time, we cannot look away in the face of these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering and I will not be silent.”
Harris’s harder line comes as further evidence emerges of the catastrophic conditions in Gaza. The Guardian revealed that dozens of US doctors and nurses who have worked in Gaza have written to Biden and Harris to call for the US to withdraw diplomatic and military support for Israel until there is a ceasefire.
Writing that in their view the death toll is already greater than 92,000, they say they cannot forget “the scenes of unbearable cruelty directed at women and children that we witnessed ourselves”.
They write: “Every single signatory to this letter treated children in Gaza who suffered violence that must have been deliberately directed at them. Specifically, every one of us on a daily basis treated pre-teen children who were shot in the head.”
Several of the signatories previously told The Guardian they believed Israeli snipers were targeting children and reported the devastating impact on civilians of weapons designed to spray high levels of shrapnel.
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The Israeli army has repeatedly denied human rights abuses, saying that because Hamas embeds itself among civilians and uses them as “human shields” it is inevitable that some civilians will be killed.
Politically, a harder line may not be a bad thing for the Harris campaign. Much of the Jewish American vote in the US is concentrated in what are not swing states, such as Florida and New York, while Arab American voters are in several swing states, such as Michigan.
Under Biden’s candidacy, many Arab American voters suggested they were not going to vote in November in protest against Biden’s support for Israel in its ongoing war.
A different approach by Harris may help the Democrats to hold a state such as Michigan, which has high value under the US’ electoral college system.
The reality of a tough campaign
While the result of the election is completely unpredictable, we now have a real contest.
“Kamala Harris can win, but it will be uphill,” says Bruce Wolpe, a non-resident senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre in Sydney and author of Trump’s Australia. Wolpe is also a former Democratic staffer in Washington.
“If the election were held today, Trump would win. Trump is riding high, especially since the shooting, with his supporters as enthusiastic and welded-on as ever. Trump’s base is as strong as ever – especially since the assassination attempt.
“Harris has strong prospects for bringing back young voters who deserted President Biden, gaining stronger support from black voters and Latinos and winning support from women – similar to the teal voters in Australia.
“There are two core tasks for Harris. The first is taking Trump down by prosecuting and winning with independent voters the case that Trump is unfit for office and too extreme. And secondly, building up Democratic voters’ enthusiasm so that Harris can come close to reprising [the victory] Biden and Harris secured in 2020. If she executes on those fronts, yes, she can win.”
When the euphoria among Democrats recedes, the reality of a campaign will put the blow torch on both Harris and Trump.
Democracy is the ultimate free market. Voters are asked to buy a particular product. While Joe Biden was the candidate, Americans were being asked to buy a product that looked and behaved as faulty. The product was a year or two past its use-by date.
Democratic strategists, and much of the supportive media, were trying to argue that while the product may have been beyond its use-by date, it was still in excellent condition.
This does not mean, of course, that the majority of these groups will vote for Harris.
America is a very divided country, and no constituency can be taken for granted.
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Border a weakness for Harris
Democrats have gone from trying to convince each other that they could support a man physically and mentally deteriorating to being asked to support an energetic, feisty woman who for four years has been sitting at the top table.
This could, of course, have its own liability. More than almost anyone she must have realised that Biden was not capable of running let alone governing for another four years. And yet she was a cheerleader in the movement that tried to convince the public that Biden was on top of the toughest job in the world.
Nikki Haley provided an interesting insight in January, referring to the fact that both the major parties had elderly men as candidates. “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to win.” On Haley’s logic, the Democrats are going to win.
One of Harris’s possible strengths – similar to that of the new prime minister of the UK, Keir Starmer — is a background as a prosecutor. People often like the narrative of someone who “put bad guys away.”
Analyst Bruce Wolpe says Harris had “a very rocky start” as vice-president. “Things [for her] were very uneven in the media, staff churn in her office, she was given the immigration portfolio and her work was seen as ineffective in asserting control over the southern border.”
Indeed, the chaotic state of the border with Mexico will probably be Harris’s biggest political liability. Whether in the US or Australia, there are few more emotional issues than border security.
In Australia, John Howard tapped into this sentiment — successfully — during the 2001 election campaign with his famous declaration: “We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come.”
The porousness of the border with Mexico is a major issue for Americans. Harris was designated by President Biden to fix the border and has clearly failed. Many illegal migrants continue to enter the US.
According to a report on May 22, 2024, by the US House Committee on Homeland Security, more than 9 million illegal immigrants have entered the US since Biden became president.
The report said there had been 7.8 million “encounters” – the term used for illegal entries – at the south-west border with Mexico. It’s important to note that the committee is controlled by Republicans, so Democrats challenge the reliability of the report.
Nonetheless, what is not deniable is that the US has a major problem with its southern border – which is why Trump’s frequent promise to complete “the wall” that he began building during his first term has a resonance with many Americans.
Says Bruce Wolpe: “Immigration is Trump’s number one issue and he will pummel her over it.” However, he adds that over the past two years Harris has had enormous recognition for her campaign for abortion rights, and is connecting with women across the US.
“She has also been outspoken on gun control,” says Wolpe. “Most Americans want to see progress on those two issues (women’s rights and gun control.) Harris has taken to the world stage, representing the president. Harris is now performing strongly — and at the same time she is underestimated. That is not a bad place to be politically.”
Harris’s background as a prosecutor in California could be both a political positive and negative. There will be those who like a hard-nosed prosecutor, but there’s another reality: many of those Harris imprisoned were African American men, and there is likely to be no shortage of men who will be keen to convince the media that Harris wrongly sent them to jail.
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VP choice matters
In terms of Trump’s vulnerabilities, one of those may be the abortion issue, or as Harris calls it, “reproductive rights”.
While Trump has not been as hardline as many Republicans against abortion, the man he has chosen as his running mate, JD Vance, is without question a hard-liner on the issue.
Trump chose Vance when Biden was still his rival and Trump was at the height of his popularity. He’d survived an assassination attempt, had an enfeebled opponent and all the polls indicated he would win.
Suddenly, that seemingly-guaranteed path back to the Oval Office is in danger.
Trump appeared to feel politically invincible. He therefore did not see the need to broaden his appeal and choose a running mate who would widen his net of potential supporters.
Harris’s choice of a running mate will be equally crucial.
But all those around Trump who urged him not to go with someone as hardline as JD Vance may prove vindicated now that the entire contest is in flux.
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