Trump vs Harris polls latest: US election tracker 2024

Joe Biden finally succumbed to pressure from senior Democrats last Sunday and abandoned his bid for a second term. The 81-year-old’s fitness for another four years in office had been the source of growing concern since his disastrous televised debate performance last month.

In a published letter the US president wrote: “I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”

Mr Biden will remain in the White House until the election, and his replacement will be selected by party delegates at the Democratic National Convention which begins on August 19th. He has offered his “full support and endorsement” to his running mate, Kamala Harris.

Mr Trump, meanwhile, is enjoying a groundswell of support. Just days after surviving an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvannia, Republicans selected the former president as their nominee.

In US election polls, Mr Trump had been leading against Mr Biden, despite his recent conviction by a New York jury on 34 charges of falsifying business records. Polls have demonstrated that Mr Trump’s legal woes often only bolster support among his core demographics.

The former president was also ahead of the incumbent in several swing states – those critical to securing a majority of Electoral College votes on November 5th. Ms Harris is in an equally unenviable position, holding a negative net approval rating among voters in seven of the eight states polled by The Telegraph and Redfield & Wilton Strategies last week.

Reacting to Mr Biden’s withdrawal from the race, his Republican counterpart claimed: “There has never been a president who has done such damage to our country. From energy independence to letting in millions and millions of illegal immigrants.”

Immigration has emerged as one of the most important election issues as the US faces a growing crisis with record arrivals at the border with Mexico.

Mr Biden had been under fire from Republicans for overseeing a record rise in illegal migration. Early in his term, he tasked vice president Harris with coordinating efforts with Mexico and other South American countries aimed at “stemming the migration to our southern border.”

At the GOP convention in Milwaukee, Republicans focussed their attacks on Ms Harris along this line: she was the president’s “border czar”, and failed.

In an increasingly polarised United States, the fate of democracy itself has also emerged as one of the key political issues.

Those on the Left feared the threat came from the prospect of the re-election of an authoritarian Trump. Republicans argued that the Biden administration was weaponising the judicial system to convict the former president.

Inflation remains a key issue too, with the cost of living growing despite the economy performing strongly.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are having success attacking Trump over abortion, after the former president packed the Supreme Court, which overturned Roe v Wade. 

Mr Trump blamed the issue on a disappointing performance by the Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections, in which several candidates he had personally endorsed failed to make inroads.

Although he takes credit for the “miracle” of undoing Roe v Wade, he also acknowledges that the issue could hurt Republicans at the ballot box and steered clear of imposing a federal limit. Instead, he said he will leave it to the states to make the decision.

Mr Biden had said he would guarantee federal abortion rights if he won in November, while his campaign accused Mr Trump of stripping away reproductive rights.

Polls also showed about two-thirds of Americans thought the president, who celebrated his 81st birthday on Nov 20, was too old to continue in the White House beyond next year.

In the days before he dropped out of the race, top Democrats including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reportedly relayed these concerns to him privately. Even his former running mate, ex-president Barack Obama, is said to have warned his chances of winning the election were slim.

Analysts suggested Mr Biden was losing the support of core Democrat voters, including young liberals, black voters and Muslims concerned about Gaza.

A New York Times/Siena poll found that 46 per cent of voters trusted Trump to handle the crisis and only 38 per cent had confidence in Mr Biden.

However, a Suffolk University/USA Today poll found that the president had gained ground on the economy.

In October, 21 per cent of voters said the economy was recovering. This figure had climbed to 33 per cent by March.

Mr Trump’s poll ratings appear to be unaffected by four criminal indictments against him, for alleged election interference, mishandling of classified documents and claims he paid hush money to a porn star.

In April, he became the first US President to stand criminal trial, appearing in Manhattan Criminal Court over “hush money” allegations.

He has frequently complained that his time in court – four days a week while it is in session – means he cannot campaign in vital swing states. However, he has used the media spotlight to claim he is the victim of a “witch hunt” by Mr Biden and the Department of Justice.

Mr Trump has also taken to the stand to testify in a $250m civil fraud trial in New York, which threatens to strip him of his business empire in the city, including the iconic Trump Tower.

His appearance makes him the first former president in 100 years to give evidence as a defendant in court.

Both candidates are mindful of the impact that Robert F. Kennedy Jr, an independent candidate polling in the high single digits, will have on the race.

His platform – a mix of vaccine scepticism, environmentalism, and isolationism – appears to be drawing traction from both the right and left. And both candidates have attacked him on the basis that he will boost the chances of the other.

The conventional logic is that the Democratic pedigree that comes with the last name Kennedy would end up eating into Mr Biden’s base of support.

In what appeared to be an attempt to nullify this, the US President accepted an endorsement from other members of the Kennedy clan, one of America’s most famous political dynasties, in April.

However, an NBC poll showed Trump’s two-point lead over Mr Biden in a head-to-head race would be reversed if Mr Kennedy and other third-party candidates entered the fray.

The Republican has criticised Mr Kennedy as a “Radical Left Liberal” whose candidacy would end up helping “Crooked Joe Biden, the Worst President in the History of the United States”.

Mr Kennedy is also attracting more interest from former Trump donors than those who previously supported Mr Biden, according to US media.

However, a CNN poll from late April suggested that he could take 13 per cent apiece from both candidates – meaning his impact on the race could be minimal.

Mr Biden and Trump romped to victory in the primaries, sweeping almost all states with limited opposition.

Mr Trump faced the sternest test against Nikki Haley, who lasted until Super Tuesday before dropping out.

Major questions remain over whether her more moderate supporters will be willing to back Mr Trump, who ended up underperforming according to a comparison of polls and results.

Exit polls from Super Tuesday also showed an alarming number of Republican voters saying Mr Trump will not be fit to serve if convicted.

Mr Biden, meanwhile, is facing a backlash over support for Israel among more Left-wing, young and Arab voters, all of whom have traditionally swung Democrat.