Two-thirds of Americans think Trump tariffs will lead to higher prices, poll says

Two-thirds of Americans think Donald Trump’s tariff plans will only add to rising costs if implemented, and many are planning purchases ahead of his inauguration anticipating higher prices, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian.

Trump declared on Monday evening that he would impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on China, if they did not stop what he claimed was illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling.

But although he has called tariffs the most “beautiful word in the dictionary”, about 69% of Americans think tariffs on imports will lead to higher prices, according to the poll.

The majority of Democrats (79%), independents (68%) and Republicans (59%) all believe that tariffs will increase the prices of the goods they pay for in the US. Nearly the same percentage of respondents said that tariffs will have a significant effect on what they can afford.

The Harris poll raises questions about the popularity of one of Trump’s key economic policy platforms. During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump called for a broad 20% tariff on all foreign imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

“You see these empty, old, beautiful steel mills and factories that are empty and falling down. Trump said in October, when talking about tariffs. “We’re going to bring the companies back. We’re going to lower taxes for companies that are going to make their products in the USA and we’re going to protect those companies with strong tariffs.”

Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, who played a key role in Trump’s campaign, will be the cabinet member carrying out Trump’s tariff plans as commerce secretary. While Lutnick has been supportive of Trump’s tariff talk on the campaign trail, he told CNBC in October that tariffs should not be put on goods that the United States does not already produce.

“When you’re running for office, you make broad statements so people understand you. Tariffs are an amazing tool for the president to use,” Lutnick said at the time.

Economists largely disagree with Trump’s argument that tariffs will mean a significant uptick in domestic manufacturing. Companies will likely simply pass increased costs onto customers.

Americans seem to think so too. Over three-quarters (76%) of those polled said they believe companies will pass along the price of tariffs to consumers. Tariffs could cost American households an additional $2,600 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Multiple executives have already said tariffs will mean higher prices. Walmart’s chief financial officer, John David Rainey, said “there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers” with tariffs. Lowe’s CFO, Brandon Sink, has said that tariffs “certainly would add product costs”.

Price increases from tariffs would affect American households already battered from the decades-high inflation that was seen in 2022. Though the rate of inflation has gone down significantly, prices remain high. Only 35% of Americans in the poll said they feel comfortable with their earnings and savings.

“Tariffs look great at a campaign rally, but not in the grocery store or in the dealer showroom,” said John Gerzema, CEO of the Harris Poll. “Passing tariffs along in the form of higher prices will be highly unpopular and likely to dampen consumption.”

Nearly half of Americans (44%) told Harris that they are planning purchases ahead of Trump entering office, in case he ends up implementing tariffs, and two-thirds (62%) said they feel they have to adjust their 2025 financial plans for potential tariffs. The trend was particularly pronounced among younger Americans and people of color.

The poll also showed some voters do not know how tariffs work. Though 78% of Americans felt confident they understand what a tariff is, only 48% correctly answered that American companies pay the tariffs. Nearly half of Republicans (47%) incorrectly said that foreign countries are responsible for paying tariffs, compared with 32% of Democrats.

Though tariffs appear to be more popular among Republicans, just 51% of Republicans said tariffs will have a positive impact on the economy – 27% of independents and 20% of Democrats thought the same.

The findings may seem surprising given Trump’s convincing win and his repeated pledge to impose tariffs. However, a previous Harris poll conducted in September for the Guardian found tariffs were not popular even among Republicans. Only 24% of those polled (34% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats) selected tariffs on all foreign goods as an economic proposal that would strengthen the economy.

• This survey was conducted online within the US by the Harris Poll from 14 to 16 November 2024, among a nationally representative sample of 2,112 US adults. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the data for this population is accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points using a 95% confidence level.