Holiday retail sales are expected to experience a moderate increase of between 2.3% and 3.3% in 2024, according to Deloitte’s annual forecast. This growth, while slower than last year’s 4.3% surge, is anticipated to be driven by a combination of factors including steady employment and rising disposable income.
E-commerce is poised to continue its upward trajectory, with Deloitte projecting a growth rate of 7% to 9% during the upcoming holiday season. This would bring total e-commerce sales to between $289 billion and $294 billion.
Despite the positive outlook, several factors could temper the growth in retail sales. Inflation, while declining, could still impact consumers’ purchasing power. Additionally, rising credit card debt and dwindling pandemic-era savings may lead to more cautious spending habits.
“While the overall holiday sales growth will be slower than last year, we expect a solid season,” said Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights. “The combination of a healthy labour market and rising disposable income will support retail sales.”
Michael Jeschke, principal at Deloitte Consulting LLP, noted that retailers who prioritise building customer loyalty and trust are likely to be better positioned for success in this year’s competitive holiday shopping season.
