United States GP: What will decide the F1 title race between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris?

Six rounds will decide who becomes F1 world champion in 2024 as Max Verstappen looks for a fourth consecutive title and Lando Norris a first world championship crown.

Verstappen’s advantage has been whittled away since the summer break and he carries a 52-point lead over Norris going into this week’s United States Grand Prix, which is also a Sprint weekend.

McLaren are 41 points in front of Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship and are big favourites to win that title for the first time since 1998.

The last serious title fight that went down to the last race was the dramatic 2021 season, where Verstappen controversially overtook Lewis Hamilton on the final lap of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix after a late Safety Car.

Sky Sports F1 takes a look at what factors will decide the championship between Verstappen and Norris.

The race in the factory

There may have been no race for over three weeks, but you can guarantee Red Bull and McLaren have been flat out in their factories to bring big upgrades to Austin.

One reason for Red Bull being caught so quickly by the field is they went the wrong way with their development at some point this year, although Christian Horner has even stated the team began to go wrong last season.

After a poor weekend at the Italian Grand Prix, where Verstappen and Sergio Perez were both outside of the top five, Red Bull brought a revised floor to the next race in Baku in mid-September.

Perez was in the fight for victory before he tangled with Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz on the penultimate lap, then Verstappen finished second in Singapore a week later to limit the damage to Norris.

“I think it’s good that the drivers are feeling the difference. I think we found a direction,” said Horner after Singapore.

“Of course, that then opens up how you develop the car from here.

“There’s a lot of information coming out of these events that will influence what’s going on the car in Austin.

“We got a lot of useful information out of the last two races but they are very different venues to the sweeping curves of Austin.”

Red Bull must hope their upgrades in Austin work straight away, or face falling further behind McLaren and maybe also Mercedes and Ferrari. That is when we will see big points swings if Norris is winning races and Verstappen is finishing fifth or sixth for example.

The key for Red Bull will be to get the car into its operating window more consistently, an area which McLaren have nailed.

In all conditions and all circuits, McLaren have either the car to beat, or are very close to the front.

Andrea Stella says the team will still be “aggressive in terms of development” as they look to add even more performance to the car.

“I think it’s definitely not in our hands because it’s still in Max’s hands,” said Stella.

“Likewise, the constructors’, that’s more in our hands, in fairness. But I think we [are] potentially encouraged and even more optimistic that the Drivers’ Championship is possible because of the performance of the car.”

We do not know exactly what new parts the top teams will bring to this weekend’s United States Grand Prix, but do not be surprised to see new floors, new corners of the car and new wings.

Whatever the teams have on the car in Austin, they will likely carry for the remainder of the season, unless they take a more cautious approach of splitting the upgrades between USA and the following race in Mexico.

Sprint weekends

We have not had a Sprint since the Austrian Grand Prix weekend in June, but there are three events which feature a Sprint in the run-in.

The events in Austin this weekend, Sao Paulo (November 1-3) and Qatar (November 29-December 1) will see the short 100km race on the Saturday before the main race.

Eight points are on offer for the winner of the Sprint, with the top eight scoring championship points: 8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1.

The title could come down to singular points, so every point matters. Looking back to the Miami Sprint earlier this year, Norris was an innocent bystander in a first-corner collision and Verstappen took the full eight points.

Although Norris won the Miami Grand Prix itself 24 hours later from Verstappen, both drivers walked away with 26 points from the weekend.

There is also just one hour of practice on a Sprint weekend, so having a car which is quick out of the blocks is vital.

On paper, that plays into the strengths of McLaren if the form from September is anything to go by as they have been able to play around with the set-up of the car a lot less after the traditional second practice on a Friday, overnight into final practice on Saturday, compared to Red Bull.

Strategy and team decisions

Finding the right set-up is an integral part of a race weekend when trying to find the correct balance of the car. This process is down to a combination of driver feedback and the intelligent engineers, who have all the data.

With such fine margins for the majority of this season, the difference between fighting for the win and being off the podium can come down to set-up and the ‘sweet spot’ which every driver wants, where they have little understeer and can stand on the throttle hard out of a corner without sliding.

McLaren have been excellent at high downforce and high-grip tracks, so they should have the car to beat in Brazil and Qatar, whereas Las Vegas will be more of a weakness due to the low downforce set-up everyone will run.

The Woking-based team made some questionable strategic decisions in the summer which may have cost Norris a couple of race wins, but they have improved in that department recently.

On the other hand, Verstappen has been vocal about Red Bull’s pit wall and even the typically rapid pit crew have not been hitting their high standards, with an average pit-stop time of 2.9 seconds in the last five races compared to the normal sub 2.5-second stops.

If there are races where Red Bull and McLaren have cars that are similar in terms of pace, strategy could make the difference between 25 points for finishing first and 18 points for second.

Verstappen will remember the 2021 United States Grand Prix, when he held off Hamilton, after an incredible race-long battle between the drivers and strategists. Can Norris and McLaren perform at that kind of level?

Team orders

Thinking back to 2021 again and the role Perez played in holding up Hamilton at the Turkish Grand Prix and in the Abu Dhabi finale, the Red Bull driver and McLaren’s Oscar Piastri will be enforced to play the number two role in the last six events.

Aside from Baku, Perez has not been able to aid Verstappen in any form this year whereas Piastri has been so strong that he took points away from Norris at key moments, including in the Hungarian and Italian races.

Following Piastri’s brave overtake on Norris on the opening lap, which saw Charles Leclerc get by the British driver, McLaren stated they would prioritise Norris in the championship.

Any 50-50 will go Norris’ way according to the team and also expect less hard racing between the McLaren pair if they are fighting for the same piece of track.

Strategically, Piastri and Perez could be used to hold up their rival title contender by running long in stints or going for aggressive undercuts.

There is also the matter of the extra point for fastest lap. Red Bull have previously used Perez to get the bonus point if Verstappen could not.

Grid penalties

Verstappen exceeded the four engine limit for the season back in July at the Belgian Grand Prix, so received a 10-place grid penalty but fought back from 11th to fourth, ahead of Norris.

Norris was fitted with his fourth power unit at the Italian Grand Prix in August, when there were eight events remaining.

It is possible both drivers will need to take on another engine in the final six rounds. However, Verstappen will only get a five-place grid penalty, whereas Norris would be hit with the 10-place grid penalty the Dutchman got at Spa-Francorchamps.

Looking at the remaining six races, Brazil is where some teams may look to fit a new engine because it is one of the easier circuits to overtake, and you can use the fresh power unit in the final three events in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

Mercedes used this to great effect with Hamilton in 2021 as the seven-time world champion produced a spectacular comeback drive from 20th to fifth in the Sao Paulo Grand Prix Sprint, then 10th to first in the race itself.

Mistakes and misfortune

Above all, the biggest factor in the title race will be mistakes or misfortune that see 18 or 25 points thrown away in a matter of seconds.

Think back to Hamilton getting stuck in the pit entry gravel trap at the 2007 Chinese Grand Prix, Mark Webber crashing out of the 2010 South Korean Grand Prix, Fernando Alonso getting a puncture at Suzuka in 2012, Hamilton, again, in Malaysia 2016 suffering a heart-breaking engine failure. Those are just some of the moments that have swung championships from the last two decades.

Norris was very close to a shock retirement last time out in Singapore when he clipped the wall twice, despite being well ahead of the field.

“Both were like really severe, almost race-ending moments where he was quite lucky not to be DNF (did not finish),” said 2016 world champion Nico Rosberg on the Sky Sports F1 Podcast.

“I can’t remember myself or Max Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton, when leading so comfortably with 30 seconds, making three major mistakes like that. That was a bit strange.

“I know Singapore is so hard, concentration, physically, it’s so, so tough, but I don’t know what it’s down to that there’s so many little [errors].

“But we know that Lando tends to make those little errors all the time everywhere. We have seen that from him and he needs to iron that out if he wants to fight for the championship this year.”

As Rosberg alludes to, Verstappen rarely cracks and Norris is the one who cannot afford a retirement.

All it takes is a small loss of concentration or a tangle at the first corner for everything to change in the title race.

We cannot guarantee the championship will go down to the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on December 8, but we can promise plenty of drama before we get there…

Just six races remain in Formula 1 2024 and the season resumes with a Sprint weekend at the United States Grand Prix in Austin from this Friday, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership – No contract, cancel anytime