Bussiness
US election 2024 results: China is taking big step ahead of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris becomes President of USA
Beijing has in recent months heeded calls to step up support for the economy after years of inaction, announcing a raft of measures including rate cuts and the easing of some home buying restrictions, AFP reported.
But they have refrained from unveiling a figure for the long-awaited stimulus, disappointing investors after a market rally fizzled when officials repeatedly failed to commit to a top line.
Analysts now hope this number could emerge from this week’s meeting of the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress, the top body of China’s rubber stamp parliament headed by number three official Zhao Leji.
Nomura economists expect lawmakers this week to approve around one trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra funds.
The measures are expected to be announced when the meeting wraps up on Friday — in time for Beijing to take stock of results of presidential elections in the United States.Both candidates in the race have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the country. And Nomura economists expect Beijing to adjust the size of its stimulus depending on the outcome, as per the report on AFP.”We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, in a research note.
“In our view, the size of China’s fiscal stimulus package would be around 10 to 20 percent bigger under a Trump win than under the scenario of a (Kamala) Harris win,” Lu wrote.
The standing committee reviews and approves all legislation, including allocating funds out of China’s budget. “We are expecting more details on (stimulus) proposals to be passed,” said Heron Lim of Moody’s Analytics.
The session kicked off on Monday with discussion of laws on arbitration and science and technology, state news agency Xinhua said.
Analysts also expect Beijing to approve a separate, one-off one trillion yuan for banks, aimed at writing off non-performing loans over the past four years.
But Natixis economist Alicia Garcia Herrero cautioned that “a lot of money will go to cover losses”.
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