US holiday retail sales forecast to grow by 2.3-3.3%: Deloitte

Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion during the November to January timeframe. In 2023, holiday sales grew by 4.3 per cent in the same period, Deloitte said in a press release.

A key driver of overall retail sales growth in the upcoming season is expected to be e-commerce. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce in the US will likely grow between 7 per cent and 9 per cent, year-over-year, during the 2024-2025 holiday season to between $289 billion and $294 billion this season.

US holiday retail sales are projected to grow by 2.3 to 3.3 per cent in 2024, totalling $1.58 to $1.59 trillion.
E-commerce is expected to rise by 7 to 9 per cent, reaching $289 to $294 billion.
Slower sales growth, compared to last year’s 4.3 per cent increase, is due to factors such as inflation, rising credit card debt, and reduced pandemic savings.

“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income (DPI), combined with a steady labour market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “Meanwhile, inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”

“Following a sharp rise in spending post-pandemic, this season’s retail sales are expected to moderately increase in line with trends over the past decade,” said Michael Jeschke, principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP, and Retail & Consumer Products leader. “Our forecast indicates that e-commerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximise their spending. While this holiday season reflects a return to trend levels of growth, retailers who focus on building loyalty and trust with consumers could be well positioned for success.”

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)