US Presidential Election 2024: New polls show VP Kamala Harris outpacing Donald Trump in key states

With just two months remaining until the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged out former President Donald Trump in several key polls. This development marks a significant shift in the race, particularly since President Joe Biden’s exit in July. Harris, who has taken over the Democratic ticket, is showing stronger numbers than Biden did, especially in battleground states.

US Elections: Polls Show Harris Gaining Ground

Recent polls reflect Harris’ growing momentum. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted between August 23-27, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 46% among all adults and registered voters. Among likely voters, her lead widens slightly to 52% against Trump’s 46%. The poll also highlights that 56% of Americans rate Harris’ campaign performance as “excellent” or “good,” compared to 41% for Trump.

The Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk/USA Today polls similarly show Harris ahead, with respective percentages of 48%, 49%, and 48%. In contrast, Trump stands at 47%, 48%, and 43% in these polls.

US Elections: Swing States and Margins of Error

Harris is performing particularly well in critical swing states, which could be decisive in determining the election’s outcome. The Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls reveal that Harris is leading Trump within the margin of error in Georgia (50%), Michigan (49%), Nevada (50%), and Pennsylvania (51%). She has also pulled ahead outside the margin of error in Wisconsin, with a 53% lead. However, the race is extremely close in Arizona and North Carolina, where both candidates are tied.

This performance contrasts sharply with Biden’s campaign, where he struggled to make significant inroads in these key states. Harris’ ability to secure leads in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania highlights her appeal as a more trusted leader among voters in these areas.

US Elections: Trump’s Strengths in Key Issues

Despite Harris’ gains, Trump continues to hold strong in areas that are particularly important to voters. He leads Harris on the economy and inflation by 8 points each and has a 9-point advantage on handling the US-Mexico border. These issues are expected to play a critical role as the election nears. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, these areas of strength give Trump a solid base, even as he trails in overall polling numbers.”Trump maintains advantages in areas critical to voters, leading by 8 points on the economy and inflation, and 9 points on handling the US-Mexico border,” the poll results show.The shift in polling dynamics since Biden’s exit is noteworthy. Before Biden stepped down, he was trailing Trump in several key states, including the Great Lakes swing states and the Sun Belt. Biden’s campaign also faced challenges after the June 27 debate, where he failed to gain momentum. Harris, however, appears to be turning the tide, especially among female voters, where she has expanded her lead to 13 points (54% to 41%) from a previous 6-point margin.

The polling index by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ also reflects Harris holding a national lead, pegged at 3.8 points over Trump. The ABC News/Ipsos poll, with a margin of sampling error of 2.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, underlines the competitive nature of this race.

As the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, the competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains tight and highly competitive. Harris’ recent gains suggest that she is resonating with key voter demographics, but Trump’s strengths on critical issues like the economy and border security mean the race is far from decided. Both campaigns are likely to ramp up their efforts, making the next few weeks crucial in determining the final outcome.

(With inputs from TOI)