Who will win the NBA Cup? Updated picks, predictions, odds for 2024 in-season tournament | Sporting News

The knockout round is set for the NBA Cup (formerly known as the In-Season Tournament). Eight teams remain, and one of the Magic, Bucks, Hawks, Knicks, Mavericks, Thunder, Warriors and Rockets will be crowned a winner in Las Vegas on Dec. 17. 

There were some nice surprises during group play to get down to the eight remaining teams. The Hawks in particular were the plucky underdog, somehow beating both the Celtics and Cavs in order to make it to the quarterfinals. That’s a good reminder that anything can happen in the Cup, particularly when the tournament transforms into a single-elimination format going forward. 

Here are predictions for each quarterfinal, semifinal, and Finals game. All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

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NBA Cup bracket

NBA Cup predictions 2024

Quarterfinals predictions

Magic at Bucks

• Time: Tue, Dec. 10 | 7 p.m. ET 
• Channel: TNT
• Odds: Magic +8.5 (-110) | Bucks -8.5 (-110)

If this game took place a week ago, then the Magic would probably win. But Orlando continues to be devastated by injuries. Franz Wagner has played like an All-Star, and he joined teammate Paolo Banchero on the sideline last week with the same oblique injury that Banchero suffered at the start of the year. 

The Magic will be without their best two players for this game, while the Bucks finally had Khris Middleton make his season debut on Friday in a competitive 111-105 loss to the Celtics. After a terrible 2-8 start to their season, Milwaukee has rebounded to go 10-3, bringing their overall record to 12-11 on the year. 

The Bucks’ defense has clawed its way back to around average, and the Magic were already a bad offense even before the injuries. Wagner and Banchero are both the team’s best passers and scorers. Without either offensive threat, Orlando simply doesn’t have enough to compete with Milwaukee. 

Prediction: Bucks over Magic

MORE: How did Khris Middleton look in Bucks season debut?

Mavericks at Thunder

• Time: Tue, Dec. 10 | 9:30 p.m. ET 
• Channel: TNT
• Odds: Mavericks +4.5 (-115) | Thunder -4.5 (-105)

This is going to be a very fun game. It’s a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Semifinals, which the Mavs took in six games. These teams also met in Oklahoma City on Nov. 17, where Dallas won 121-119 despite missing Luka Doncic. 

The Thunder are a different and better team than last year. They’ve added Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso, who have contributed into making them the best defense since the Bill Russell Celtics. Their 18-5 record is the best in the West.

The Mavericks are a better team than last year too. After a slow start to the season, they’re winners of 11 of their last 12 games, with their only loss coming in overtime on the road to the Heat. Doncic has rounded out into form and looks like an MVP candidate again. 

This could easily be a preview of the Western Conference Finals. These are the two best teams in the West right now. The Thunder are hungrier to show that they can hang with the Mavericks, and they have a slew of perimeter defenders to slow Doncic down. That should earn them a very narrow win. 

Prediction: Thunder over Mavericks

MORE: Knicks vs. Trae Young history, explained

Hawks at Knicks

• Time: Wed. Dec. 11 | 7 p.m. ET 
• Channel: ESPN
• Odds: Hawks + 7.5 (-110) | Knicks -7.5 (-110)

This is another very fun matchup. Trae Young has a longstanding rivalry with Knicks fans, which will lead to them booing him from the get-go. 

It’s been an odd season for Young. His scoring numbers are down, but he’s still capable of brilliant performances such as a 31-point, 20-assist masterpiece in an overtime win against the Lakers over the weekend. 

Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson have been the big difference-makers for the Hawks, picking up that slack. Daniels is already a lock for his first All-Defensive team, and Johnson is a multifaceted wing who is tough to stop on offense. 

The Knicks have had a strange season themselves. This does not look like your dad’s Tom Thibodeau team. They’re a bad defense, anchored by the worst rim protector big man in the league in Karl-Anthony Towns. They’re also the best offense in NBA history, led by the best shooting big man in the league in Towns. 

This is going to be a defense-optional affair. That’s the type of game that the Hawks love to play, and I like them to pull off the biggest upset of the tournament here. 

Prediction: Hawks over Knicks

MORE: KAT is scoring like prime Dirk Nowitzki for Knicks — and defending like present-day Dirk Nowitzki

Warriors at Rockets

• Time: Wed. Dec. 11 | 9:30 p.m. ET 
• Channel: TNT
• Odds: Warriors +2.5 (-110) | Rockets -2.5 (-110)

These are two of the best defenses in the league, so expect a rock fight.

The Warriors still have Steph Curry playing like an MVP candidate. Behind him, there’s not much. Buddy Hield has cooled down from a torrid start to the season, and Jonathan Kuminga has had flashes. But they haven’t been able to nail down their best units, and Draymond Green has even come off the bench recently. 

Andrew Wiggins’ status will be important to monitor. He missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, and he’s up in the air for this one. He’s had a much better season after badly regressing last year. 

The Rockets have been the biggest surprise in the West. They’ve built the league’s no. 2 defense behind the Thunder. Everyone except Alperen Sengun can guard one-on-one, and Sengun is big enough to stay near the basket in order to deter layups. Their success has been the type of group effort that the Warriors have tried (less successfully) to use as well. 

Kevon Looney could somewhat surprisingly play an important role in this matchup. He’s guarded the crafty Sengun well. If Sengun isn’t able to go off, will the Rockets have enough offense to win this game? I’m guessing that the answer is no. 

Prediction: Warriors over Rockets

Semifinals predictions

Thunder vs. Warriors

Time: Dec. 14, TBD

Prediction: Thunder over Warriors

With respect to the Warriors, the Thunder would dominate this matchup. They have way too many options to throw at Curry. Once he shuts down, so too does Golden State. 

The Warriors are able to succeed on offense due to a motion-heavy offense that is full of different types of screening actions. The best way to combat that type of system is to switch all screens. There aren’t a ton of teams who are capable of switching every matchup. The Thunder are perhaps best-equipped to do so out of anyone in the league. 

The Warriors still do have the possibility of getting an otherworldly Curry game and stealing this matchup. It happened earlier in the year, where he had 36 points in a win. But Curry has been battling some nagging injuries, and that’s a tough outcome to count on. The Thunder should win this one.

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Bucks vs. Hawks

Time: Dec. 14, TBD 

Prediction: Hawks over Bucks

The Hawks are a very tough team to get a read on. At 13-12, they don’t seem that dangerous. But they won six straight before losing to the Nuggets in their last game before the Cup. They are capable of hanging with anyone. 

The Bucks have played Young well in the past. They eliminated the Trae-led Hawks from the Conference Finals in 2021. This is a different team though, with a dynamic offense that is going to pummel Milwaukee’s shoddy transition defense. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the second-best player in the league behind Nikola Jokic, but I’m taking the Hawks in another upset. It’s tough to trust the Bucks’ defense and Doc Rivers in a big game. 

Finals prediction

Thunder at Hawks

Time: Dec. 17, TBD

Prediction: Thunder over Hawks

This is where the magic runs out for the Hawks. This would be the first legitimate defense that they’ve faced in their Cup run, and it’s the best one in the league.

The Thunder wiped the Hawks out in a 128-104 win in their third game of the season. Young had a decent game, but nobody else on the team could score. That is exactly what would happen in a rematch. As good as Young is at generating advantages, the Thunder have the best assortment of help-and-recover defenders in the league.

The Hawks could put Daniels on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Thunder still have a ton of great offensive weapons. And Young would be picked apart mercilessly on defense. 

The Thunder are the best team in this tournament, and they’d be a favorite against whatever team comes out of the East. Against the Hawks, it would be a blowout.